No way in hell are we having a war with China. First of all, it wouldn't solve anything. Secondly, China is not very aggressive outside its borders. Although it is heavily militarized. Finally, I don't believe two heavily nuclear supplied countries will ever go to war. Look how how aggro the USSR was abroad, and we never went to war with them. They just blatantly sucked up many countries. Its guaranteed mutual annihilation. China and the USA need each other, and will continue to for the foreseeable future. I don't think either country will collapse anyway. We will have a good global recession however.
Why should we have a long global recession? Isn't it the US who is heavily in debt - the rest of the world can grow just fine ... China will do 9% now and Brazil 7% --- that is pretty ok. More fiscal conservative consumers around the world will not on average be as devastated as those in the US, IMO.
China is going to have the perfect setup. Once the US stock prices are all low enough, they'll use all their American dollars to buy everything they can. The Americans will be economic slaves to China for generations to come.
jeez that's a chilling thought, and it clicks i've never thought the chinese were as stupid as they seemed to be in this, and i've known that either we, or they are chumps in this deal
The entire G7 is screwed, as are many emerging countries dependent on them. Virtually all economists believe a global recession is inevitable. New Zealand already in recession, Australia tanking fast, etc. If commodities stay low, Brazil may grow about 3% per year. China going to drop to maybe 7% per year. Overall though, globally we are expected to be in recession. The worst in a long time. Don't you read economic news? its everywhere. A good source is RGE Monitor, regmonitor.com. I am an economist and I think this is one of the best. Has been spot on. Basically, the industrialized Earth is over leveraged, and until this is worked off, consumption will be weak. This will effect everyone else. Will be obvious by first quarter 2009. I don't think this is a big problem however. We need to clean out the shit, and then we will get a lot more fiscally responsible to go forward. I don't see a collapse, short of possibly Iceland as they were ridiculously leveraged as a nation. this will be a good thing in the long run. I know you like to argue buddy, but you are dead wrong on this one. I can send you a whole slew of articles if ya want. it all comes down to a massive credit bubble, and asset bubble.
Nah, you're in love with the Chinese or something. China is simply the benefactor of the wonderful "World's Sweatshop" position. They may own the sweatshop factories, but they don't own the products, the corporations do. That is slowly changing, as China knows the US consumer is not an infinite source of demand. It's relatively simple. The Multinational Corporations control matters here and there. Think about it.
then IMO, it will be Iceland vs Argentina. Everyone else will be OK in the long run. A bit of pain to clean out the shit, but not collapsed economies.