Crescendo Sell-off

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, Oct 2, 2008.

  1. "The crescendo sell-off is often preceded by intensified and universal awareness of economic strife."


    "The Greek believes the global consciousness, driven by the force of major media and Internet penetration, plays a role. So, as things get bad for Wall Street, and investors and media start to notice capital destruction, the viewpoint that "things are getting bad" pervades the global consciousness. We all become aware of it. Eventually, it pervades so deeply into the common man's thoughts, that it intensifies stock market sensitivity to bad news. I believe this is the reason for crescendo sell-off."

    Just look at the Dow Transports Index. Look at anything.

    Unmitigated, painful, relentless selling. I've seen bigger corrections, but this is just painful.

    All 'crescendo-like.'
  2. The final selloff in a long drawn out bear market ends with a whimper. If you are looking for a crescendo ending you are expecting more of a V bottom.
  3. So, from a purely technical viewpoint, how much further (roughly/approximately) would you say we have to go?

    Are we going sub 1k s&p?
  4. Haven't looked at the S&P too closely but it looks to me like action similar to October 2001 to October 2002 is in the cards.
  5. Market seems to be recovering now. Hardly a crescendo sell off.

    sorry but all the money made on the short side has already been made. Time to cover.
  6. We have all studied the S&P. Its common knowledge that the next fib retracement is at 1075 and then after that comes 2002-2003 lows. Then after that is anyone's guess.
  7. This coming from the idiot who posted yesterday that you should short financials and airlines.
  8. rros


    Aside from other possible indicators and being a temporary bottom in a secular bear, today the RSI for the VIX hit 73.40, higher than its peak in Oct 1997 during the asian flu and the highest reading since 1990.
  9. Maria time to talk up a rally. Whenever she talks the markets rally. Happened two fridays ago.

    Also, airlines and financials are down. AMR down 5%.

    The bill has yet to pass in the house. Thats gonna be huge when it does.
  10. Unfortunately, stocktrad7r went long. The next two logical points the market could pivot at are 1075 and then around 800. The market is broken right now and the odds are it will go lower.

    Everything looks cheap. So did many tech stocks look cheap in 2001 and then they looked even cheaper in 2002.

    Buffet is buying but who knows if he is right. He bought USG in the 40s and now its trading at 23. Of course USG will probably go to 40 that is in 5-10 years if you can wait that long.

    The transports are down today big and could go a lot lower.

    Sure we could be at a bottom today, but a betting man wouldnt put his money down now. He would wait until the odds are more favorable. The odds are not favorable today.
    #10     Oct 2, 2008