Discussion in 'Stocks' started by kxvid, Jul 28, 2009.
I am looking at this stock. I think it is overvalued and is a decent short. What do you think?
That depends on your time horizon. It was a decent short off the lower high just before 10 a.m. today, as a day trade.
But today it made a new 52-week high, and closed within pennies of the day's high, so that doesn't make it a decent short.
It's overbought, but then again it's been overbought for over a week now. OB/OS indicators stop working in a trend.
It displayed strong reversal signals between 6/22 and 7/7, but the downtrend ended quickly when it established support just one level back and then broke through previous resistance last Thursday, so there's no short signal there.
And all the buyers who've been bidding up the price since March don't think it's a good short either.
However, to be fair, technically it's pulled the same distance from its 20-day moving average as it has every time in the past before pulling back to the 20 MA, so THAT makes it a reasonable short IF you either scale in small and have good risk management, or you put on a full position upon some kind of confirmation signal like a break down through today's close.
Be careful shorting these high flyers, because if you look at the last time STEC pulled a solid distance from its 20 MA and left behind a lower high on 7/15, it gapped up 1.50 a share and hasn't looked back since.
Be careful - CREE is a takeover target. GE has been looking closely to acquire it for their lighting unit. LEDs - the next big thing in lighting. I don't short companies like this, regardless of charts, price action, or earnings prospects.
Actually GE has been looking at it for a few years. It would make sense that they would pounce during a market downturn, when prices should be cheaper.
If it doesnt break above yesterday's high, or hits it tomorrow or next but doesn't go over, consider opening the short then, but don't know if you'll get down to $30 on it...
I've traded CREE for a lot of years...up/down, a bit safer short might be to sell a call spread and buy the put spread...synthetic short. However it may get a bit closer to 35 and as someone said if it is a takeover target watch out! I've seen the shorts really get squeezed on this one.
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