MW is menstruating and so he can’t think straight. I think she’s not the experienced Wall Streeter he claims to be. I don’t claim to have seen this coming. I didn’t read the financials and honestly (unlike him, I don’t lie) I wouldn’t have seen it if I did. But everything was disclosed. No one is accusing the firms of hiding or obfuscating their issues. The world interpreted the information one way and it turned out another way for a variety reasons that might have been predictable for some and not for others. That’s how trading works. She should know that.
Sad to think anyone is just now figuring this out. What next, someone is going to tell me analysts provide alpha?! Economists can make meaningful economic predictions with any sort of accuracy?
SIVBs problems were known to specialists covering financials: Most equity research analysts saw it too:
"we see a stronger buy signal for the stock as having emerged". This research analyst saw nothing but rosy times ahead. Neither did the top bank analyst in the industry, Mike Mayo, see any of this coming. Nobody wondered how a deposit taking bank easily tripped in value in a single year.
And here is what you conveniently omitted re Blackrock's assessment of SVB: "The review looked at scenarios including interest rate rises of 100 to 200 basis points. But no models considered what would happen to SVB’s balance sheet if there was a sharper rate rise, such as the Federal Reserve’s swift increases to a 4.5 per cent base rate over the past year. At the time, interest rates were rock bottom and had not been above 3 per cent since 2008. That consultation concluded in June 2021. BlackRock declined to comment." Great risk assessment, shifting rates by 2% at a zero base? And where is Blackrocks followup in June 2022, Dec 2022, Jan 2023, Feb 2023 after rates increased well beyond 2%. Basically a sloppy job. Hardly anyone saw this coming. Not even Blackrock which was invited to sniff around. If anyone claims otherwise I would love to see their equity shorts prior to shutting down.
This thread is elitetrader at its finest. You would think that if a major Corp failed and auditors and credit agencies missed it the media would be all over this obvious miss. Every pundit would be talking about it. Instead they are talking about LGBTQ politics.
Mentioning the most respected bank analyst in the world is cherry picking? My point was that hardly anyone saw this coming. If they did with any conviction then I would love to see their positioning in regards to this then shortable name. I read all sorts of research on all sorts of issues but very seldomly hear of someone who speaks with conviction that includes timing, or even better, positioning, to walk the talk.
Perhaps you should then put aside your monthly queer subscription. Everyone is talking about this on every perceivable outlet and channel. Which media platform is not covering this issue? I thought only conservatives are accused of being tone deaf.
What I do not understand is how you keep posting your replies to people ABOVE their quotes. In the normal way of things on forums, you would tack the quote you are responding to ABOVE the post, so the reader of the thread has a flow to follow. You doing it backwards like this shows you do not give a darn about the reader of your posts, but rather the person you are speaking to. You are not a very good BBS/forum poster. You do not know your audience. You have no decorum. And you will now type "I don't care, I am just here to shit on you all because I am the best ever". And we here will say, "Nope".