Folks loss is a matter of degrees now and while trawling through some banks and finance companies I stumbled across an interesting fact. The CC companies are down 5% to 6% while many others are down a startling 18% to 20% in a matter of days. The market is telling us that another shoe is dropping most likely retail related mortgages- in my mind I've factored that in- Barron's wrote up Amex and I like the co but there is extremely high use of debit cards now. The consumer likes the ability to manage money now and of course not pay a high % rate... It would seem to me Visa might be the better play within this sector. Looking into it now. ~si
Some Interesting others on this Visa trade... Renaissance Tech $139 million new purchase just recently. On JP Morgan's list of 16 picks for terrible times. Pershing Square which is Ackerman new position in Visa & MA, sector play it looks like without our friend Amax. Lone Pine which I think is a value outfit with a Julian Robertson type- they increased their Visa holding by more than 100%...... ~si
Stoned as I said many, many months ago the next big economic problem in this cycle is going to be CREDIT CARD DEBT, $1 TRILLION worth.....get ready for it, it is the next big thing to drop. MA and V are going to fall an additional 50%-70%, dont be surprised, you may want to buy puts and sit quietly for the next 12 months as these stocks fall to record lows. Remember $1 TRILLION worth.
I really like that idea. It is the next appropriate corrolary to the trend which has been: Shadow banks ---> mortgage insurers ---> investment / commericial banks ----> consumer lenders of last resort (CC's) TKu.