Moving closer to the election, the shift away from Iraq to the economy begins to take center stage. The election will once again come down to the economy, as at this point most people's feelings about the Iraq war won't change that much. What would benefit GW the most would be lower oil prices, and a rising stock market. Can GW pull some strings with his OPEC buddies? Will he sell our strategic oil reserves back into the open market to reduce the price of crude? Will the dollar be orchestrated higher to entice foreign investors back into our markets for a rise in equity prices? Take a look at the CRB. We are at some serious resistance levels, and the W formation (or Dubya formation) suggests a time for a correction. While I do expect higher prices in the future, now would be a classic time for a correction in the CRB if the oil prices decline back to the mid 20 levels, which I think would benefit Bush tremendously. Also note on the short term CRB chart that we have recently had a bearish crossover on the MACD, which indicates lower prices ahead of us. In addition, we are at a key support level just below 265, which if broken suggests a top of sorts has been put in for a while, and a correction back to support levels as low as 225 may be in store. One interesting anomaly is the rise in CRB while interest rates also declined, as increase in CRB is typically inflationary and would pressure rates higher. The first chart is the daily, the second chart is a monthly. Enjoy!