How far is the retracement of this obvious short squeeze? Interesting week trading JPM with earnings this Thursday, and that thing has moved up insanely from $15 a share. No way any earnings should support $33 a share in this economy, has to get dumped at these levels either before or after earnings (even good earnings).
REIT's are out of this world. I may be an amteur at this, but the moves in IYR and SPG are beyond belief. I'd short them, but with this uptrend, NO WAY. Although there is alot of talk about commmercial, I still would think that business closing up, cutting back, malls emptying, Condo projects going belly up and all, that REITs are overpriced. PS I did have a position in SRS but sold and broke even a few days ago, THANK THE LORD for that move! SRS is an evil mother fucker!
get real. you know they are/were going to turn these hard long before any reasonable man would think. shorts screwed and longs left in the dust. old game.
thank the lord...i was a bit worried about my short position i took in them at the close on thursday. but after seeing those words i feel much much better. that was all the reassurance i needed.
California Foreclosures About To Soar The bottom line is that there is a massive wave of actual foreclosures that will hit beginning in April that canât be stopped without a national moratorium â this wave is so big I would not put it past them trying it. CA foreclosure background - in mid-2008 the foreclosure wave was artificially held back as a result of the CA law SB1137 enacted in Sept 2008. This also kept NODâs and NTSâs at much lower levels than the actual defaults that were occurring. Other bubble states and several banks/servicers also went on random moratoria and the foreclosure wave was held back for the past six months. But just like so many other intervention and moratoria in the past, the problem just comes out the other side even more violent than if they would have done nothing. Adding insult to injury, the GSEâs announced this week that they were coming off moratorium, which could increase foreclosures by 20-25% alone. The headlines in the near future will read: Circa April 12th - âMarch Foreclosures Drop Sharply but Foreclosure Starts at Record Highsâ Circa May 12th- âApril Foreclosures Surge 200% and Foreclosure Starts Remain at Record Highsâ Two months from now, the foreclosure crisis will be top of the news once again catching everyone off guard because of the past six months âinterventionâ. Thanks Washington. The chart below highlights the top servicers in the nation and their monthly NOD, NTS and REO counts. As you can see, they all have gone through various foreclosure moratoria in one or more foreclosure stages in the past year but since the Obama plan was made known, volume has soared. Note - the NOD phase is 5-7 months away from foreclosure and the NTS phase 21-45 days away. The REO column will grow significantly in near-term months due to the surge in NTS in March and coming in April. For those of you that are curious as to total counts of new loan defaults bearing down on the state, the following is a 2-year chart of new NODâs. March brought the first 50k+ count ever. From here the banks and servicers will try anything they can to get borrowers into mortgage mods before the Notice-of-Trustee Sale in filed 4-5 months down the road but ultimately most will make it to foreclosure sooner or later. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/california-foreclosures-about-to-soar.html
The foreclosure rate has slowed a bit due to these new guidelines they have put forward, however this is not the way to fix the real estate market. The government intervening in this housing crisis only prolongs the bottoming process, housing prices in my opinion are still overvalued by 20-30% in many areas. The market is still at a standstill with many people still hoping for a rebound in housing prices that will probably not come for at least another 3-5 years. Prices of housing seen during the last real estate bubble will not be back for at least another 20-25 years in many areas. Foreclosure rates have yet to peak, with unemployment still rising its only going to cause more stress on both residential real estate and commercial real estate.