What is important is the knowledge of the points because this is different from random guessing whereas saying that it will go up or down is useless if it is 50% probability it's no more usefull than random guessing. See http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=474145 I will normally be able to quantify the probability in the future but as I said in other threads I'm more focused on daytrading scale and not yet on upper scales the reason is that in non-linear dynamics (I prefer this term to Chaos Theory) the more components you have to take into account the more difficult it becomes to make accurate prediction. See the 3 body problem even simple equation like Newton creates problem see the same thread above: "The ideas of dynamical chaos was first glimpsed by Poincaré when he entered a contest sponsored by the king of Sweden. One of the questions in this contest was to show rigorously that the solar system as modeled by Newton's equations is dynamically stable. The question was nothing more than a generalization of the famous three body problem, which was considered one of the most difficult problems in mathematical physics. In essence, the three body problem consists of nine simultaneous differential equations. The difficulty was in showing that a solution in terms of invariants converges. While Poincaré did not succeed in giving a complete solution, his work was so impressive that he was awarded the prize anyway. The distinguished Weierstrass, who was one of the judges, said, "this work cannot indeed be considered as furnishing the complete solution of the question proposed, but that it is nevertheless of such importance that its publication will inaugurate a new era in the history of celestial mechanics." A lively account of this event is given in Newton's Clock: Chaos in the Solar System.
Now if you want my bias which is only based at the moment on my subjective experience for big scales we should go to 10138/10136. When I will have enough stats on big scales I will become more and more affirmative .
We made a thrust below 10233 at 10219 absolute low because the updated projection for today was 10222 (will show the charts tomorow or this we).
BTW I posted to answer another thread about prob, you can compare 10535 with 10565 which was the prob zone that has never been reached: with prob you cannot know as surely if it should be reached or not because the probability is continuous all over the space whereas the deterministic law concentrate probability around some discrete point. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=488169#post488169 <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=488169>
Can also compare with Fibo which gives 10557 as you can see it is not true law the true law indicated 10535: Fib law is numerology it is not the fundamental law but an artefact. <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=488172>
btw we are near the "normal" weekly prob zone that is to say bulls are not yet scared . <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=488174>
10177 was expected to be the low for today on daily scale: <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=492522> it should be broken to test 10138/10136.