Since someone (hardrock375) asked From: harrytrader2000 Date: Fri Jan 3, 2003 10:40 am (european hour) Subject: Crashindex url @ [erased by me hihi] Hello, Sorry for yesterday's late update for model charts because of holliday, I wasn't there to do it sooner. This year begins with a big rally : is it the famous january effect ? It seems so. You can sometimes hear that it begins from the last 5 days of December until the first 5 days of January. It was a bit late to do so but it eventually did it! In fact there was even a crash signal Friday but we told you that stochastic models are inherently not fully trustable since they are relying on probabiliities and that you must wait a confirmation at 8200 since our "fundamental" model told us this level was a very strong support. So it was a failed cash signal and experienced traders know that failed signal is also a signal (see for example psychology of trading @ http://www.futurestradingschool.com/technical/psycho/psycho.htm), in fact a very strong signal because many people were catched in wrong positions and got to reverse quickly by doubling their position in the opposite direction. Since we introuced you the pseudo-elliott projections you could have seen that all invalidation sell levels were hit straigth away. Last remark these big rallies between 4 and 5% usually happened when approaching monthly supports. Coïncidentally, we can remark that if 1% is a daily average percentage, the statistic formula gives an average of SQRT(21) = 4.58% for 21 days in a month. Nevertheless this is not a demonstration because connecting a deterministic but complex model with stochastic is not an easy task. After that big rally where's the market going ? If we look at extreme projections on daily scale 2 (ie projections at time units above 10 which is the normal charts limit - this is mentionned in the guide @ ... ) we can see that the max base level after 31/12 was 8601.65. We made a high 7 point above. You know that each time reached a max or min level it is a turning point so expect a pullback before market could pass this level towards the projected level of 9039.34. If it turned back under 8266 the rally will probably fail and target 6794. 1 d 31/12/02 1 base min base: 8302.11 proj: 8266.41 113 proj min base: 8362.99 proj: 6794.38 31 base max base: 8601.65 proj: 9039.34 31 proj max base: 8601.65 proj: 9039.34