that was not real tightening as we all know. 50 basis points increments through out the year and shrinking balance sheet is real tightening.
Sort of. Just wait to see how inflation goes. If it won’t come under control the Fed and the economy and the housing market are in deep trouble.
But it still can go further before a meaningful correction. In addition, if inflation continues to go up the house market will stay elevated as a hedge against inflation. Anything can happen in the stock market and the housing market.
Interest rates go up alot, the recession starts, people lose jobs, people cant afford to pay the mortgage. Houses get repoed and prices go down. The mania ends, people are no longer afraid of missing out on house price increases and stop bidding up house prices to stupid levels.
Venezuela’s and many country’s with mass inflation mkts skied to the moon . The economy’s still growing . Until growth collapses with inflation still rising I don’t see the mkt letting go big . Might pull back to 3900-4000 over a period of time
A business news commentator said yesterday that 80% of recent earnings reports have beaten expectations... not sure how to factor that into the pros and cons.