One of the largest intraday point swings happened earlier this week on Thursday in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. With that behind us do you think we are gonna see a crash soon? We currently have some parallels with the 1929 crash. - 4 years after the height of the real estate market - Lots of debt problems right now - Market has been unstable all week - Huge intraday price swing occurred on Thursday which parallels "Black Thursday" from the 1929 crash. Beyond that there is no good news anywhere - Unemployment is going up in the USA - The last remaining excesses of the boom have materialized. One good example is CityCenter in Las Vegas which opened in December.
I was torn between no and I hope not. No because there's no fundamental reason for a crash. I hope not because anything can happen. I chose the latter. Anyone who sold on Thursday's mini-crash got spanked big time. I have yet to hear anyone owning up to seliing at those lows. Whoever bought at those lows got seriously lucky - that was probably the government ...
It is simple: Currency markets and gold are telling you to "get the hell out of dodge". Not to mention the embattled GS and who will be next?
I don't know which charts you guys are lookign at , but basic price action tells me for the next 4-10 weeks, we are going downtown , probably to koreatown, next stop chinatown, excursion to little italy on mulbery
"Cautiously optimistic" is one of those phrases that makes my shoulders go up involuntarily when I hear it, as though to protect my ears. I have been hearing "Guardedly optimistic" which is less grating but too close. How about gingerly encouraged? Judiciously cheerful? Prudently positive? Heedfully hopeful? At any rate, I think it is more likely that commodities (and markets) will recover this week than that they will continue tanking. I was also struck by "Whatever it takes" coming from the European Union today. Sound familiar? It was uttered by Bernanke in abracadabra fashion just before the markets turned in 2009. But the magic of that phrase will wear off if it goes the way of "cautiously...".
I'm positioned for a down move the next 1-2 months. I'm not sure if we're gonna have a crash, but I do think we are headed down.
Another useless poll, as the market does not care what anyone thinks. If you know how to trade you welcome the volatility, and the more the merrier.