If you believe that the S&P is completely dependent upon what happens with oil . . . then the $64,000 question is whether or not Hurrican Katrina has already been priced into the oil markets and oil stocks, or not. If Brent gaps up in London and that sentiment is carried over into the NYMEX, it will be interesting to see whether or not the commercials sell into the spike, or whether oil and its products hold the gap. It would seem to me that there have been a lot of very bearish threads on ET during this past quarter. My guess is that Monday to Wednesday might prove to be some sort of "knee-jerk" inflection point for the intermediate term. In any event, I am looking to buy PUTS on oil issues on any gap up in the stocks on Monday. Bearish consensus is at 25.0% This weeks turn of events could push it up towards 28-30%. http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htm
Oil prices have not yet discounted the 1.000.000 barrels cut in daily production announced on saturday.
Just based on breadth and other technicals the market is not near a bottom of any kind. Personally, I would be very surprised if we start rallying on Monday (or anytime next week without a nice flush down first). Just an opinion.
Would be interesting and value added to the site. eg with all the "High crude/Buy now" threads that popped up all-day yesterday, crude was a sure short.