Crash or Bottom?

My work shows the 1549-1557 level in NDX and the 1204 area in SPX to be MAJOR inflection points. We could gap below here and the market's toast, OR we could put in a bottom Monday. Thoughts?

 

3% in 2 weeks is not a crash. It's an "orderly retreat."

 

As has been mentioned, Katrina will probably spike gas when it slams N'awlins and the market will dump, at least for a day or two.

Or not...

Good trading to all.

 

LOL. It seems we're impervious to 10% stuff.

 

I have no idea, but I will bet we go up just because they is so much fear and sentiment is bearish. On the flip side I think we will see record earnings, again. All that cash gotta go somewhere. I also think the fed is close to done with rate increases. I doubt Greenspan wants to go out with a bang (housing/market crash).

 

I do not think we'll see a bottom till the second week of September. We might see some type of rally here if oil moves down but there will be another sell-off before the markert rallies.

For now I'll short any pullback.

 

I think i' d start to worry if we break below 1.203 on the S&P and below the 2.100 on the Composite, given that we couldn't break above these levels for months.

 

Exactly.

 

We are very close to those numbers right now and we should see some buyers coming in trying to support the market: opening long positions with very tight stops might not be such a bad idea.

 

I think there's a 50% chance that we gap hard below these levels to-morrow.