Can you run analysis on an iron condor on NDX for me to see how feasible that is. I have a range for NDX March 31. The first leg Bull put spread say on Monday @12450/12200. I think if we make a run, we can get to 13,000 knowing mkt can also overshoot to ~13,400 by end of March. I would prob start the Call side as NDX approaches 12900 but this will depend on my model then. How would that look. Thanks!
Hey Ken, Since you are th OP, I took some time this morning to see some of your posts and it seems you are way too biased short side? Since it was your thread that instilled me to register and post my thoughts, (getting smoked/grilled/broiled in the process) I'll share a bit my thoughts and what has been working for me. One day this strategy may not work, but it should not hurt you much when it doesn't. My bread and butter so far has been using the 1hr charts and its 50sma. Of course, I use more indicators, but too much to go into all of them and I don't have time like some of you. But if I were to teach this to my teenage daughters, it would be using just this. The slope of the 50sma is a key component in my actions. For example, if the slope is negative (-), and the futes break to the upside, there is a high probaility to revisit or even break back below soon again and the probability's time frame is within 3-4 bars = 3 to 4 hours. This is one of the best time to short... when it breaks below the 50sma while the slope is negative. The acceleration @ delta vs risk is huge for the short play during these setups! That's your edge! The NQ mkt was in a transistion period Monday after close to Tues @ 12100. I say transition because the slope of the 50sma went from - to flat +. On Wed @3:30am, as everyone was so negative waiting for the world to crash the NQs were trading steady at 12100. The math says if it doesnt go below 12000, the slope will not go negative so a break back above the 50sma would mean emphatically risk on. Go back and look at my post of when I bought the stocks in my equities account. I was waiting for a break below 12000 and would buy if it went back above, but it never did so I had to buy as it flirted with 12150 @ 19sma. my style never gets lowest or highest prices. I was sure enough of myself (murphy's law and all) to make my very 1st post on here saying I am buying. I called the ES 3919 because its 50sma was there and its slope was still negative, and projected to be negative for the time left even if es traded instantaneously traded above it for the remaining 3 or so hours. When I sit down at the desk, my thought process is like this. I am trading against the smartest HFT teams, data scientists, physicists, and analytical minds of code breakers etc. That's a lot of complex math modeled into them. But, you don't need to beat all of them, doesn't work that way. You just need to be on the side of the ones who are making a difference in the time frame you are using. SO far the 50 on the hrly seems to show their behavior. It's pseudo-randomness and organized chaos. One other thing I have noticed is if you are on the correct side of the slope and the current trade is against you, you have a high probably to get out at smaller losses than if you are on the wrong side of the slope with your trade. I traded all long Futures on friday, like 40 round trips or so. ( well except for 1 mistake short). I was profitable on just about everyone of them... that's not me but more because I was on the right sode of the slope. Anyway, don't discount what I have written like a lot of others did initially. It's working. I'll be the first to let you know when it doesnt.
The slope of the 50sma is a key component in my actions. For example, if the slope is negative (-), and the futes break to the upside, there is a high probaility to revisit or even break back below soon again and the probability's time frame is within 3-4 bars = 3 to 4 hours. This is one of the best time to short... when it breaks below the 50sma while the slope is negative. The acceleration @ delta vs risk is huge for the short play during these setups! That's your edge! I'm going to test this.
Would love to see the test results. There is one other thing I need to point oujt. Since there's only 2 variables for the slope to change. The less meaningful being time. I haven't worked out what the markets will be like when there are days where the slope chanes due to index staying same and time going. I also model the complete area over and under the slope ( kind of like OBV back in the day) to see if there is any correlation to the acceleration. I havent had time for this yet since I havent needed it yet. I'm constantly analysing my trade entries and exit against what the indices would project to and there are still improvements to be made.