Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KCalhoun, Mar 12, 2023.

  1. NCC1701

    NCC1701

    did they buy all the underwater bonds at SVB? How big can that damn thing get before they can't do it anymore I wonder, but that settles it, I am going long SPX in the big account, looking for mini move up to the 4100 area
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2023
    #441     Mar 17, 2023
  2. destriero

    destriero

    I will show PNL bubbles at the close. QQQ skew lock traded to close pos. Slight beta-outperformance but lower. mIRA so FRC position is cash-secured puts (largest TDA account). The should go off marked to cab but it's a small position. AAPL is a large skew lock so I eat a lot of comms on day1. A Fed play.
     
    #442     Mar 17, 2023
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  3. NCC1701

    NCC1701

    good luck at the close to you and everyone, today just blew ass for me and my scalps so I am done and headed out early for some corned beef and guinness
     
    #443     Mar 17, 2023
    destriero likes this.
  4. destriero

    destriero

    Sorry to hear.

    If I'd just left open pos I'd be down around 0.25% Position-data in excel shows down 38beeps basis mid. Var is like $2K on what's showing.
     
    #444     Mar 17, 2023
  5. I have a few minutes to spare...
    Been a tough day today as I swing +- 1%. The majority of my loss today is on my 401 shares of PACW sold near the lows, lol.

    Anyone here trading NQs, if you are not using the hrly to gauge you are giving up a lot.

    I was not at my desk yesterday ( getting kids ready and driving them to school) when it gave a huge buy signal at RTH open. Go back and look for my posts about using the 50ma on the hrly to establish positions. And about a breakout/breakdown of a prior low with quick reverse using the 5min chart.

    Anyway, it's very choppy today I my style is to be bias long (buying dips on failed break downs). as long as the Nqs remain above the 50ma on the hly. I try not to short when NQ is above the 50ma on the hrly unless its a clear, major breakout then failure on both 5 min and 15 min... meaning.

    I am of the opinion that Feds will bump .25%. If they go zero 1/2 the pundits will complain, if they go .50 the other half will complain. if they go .25 mkt will rally.

    Best of luck all.

    Edit: oh position sizing is extremely important. when I first started, I was doing 1 lots of NQs, but my stops and targets were too narrow since it's a 1 shot deal.

    As the account grew, I was partly hedging using TQQQ and SQQQ against positions... then I had to bite the bullet and trade micros. Somes I would be long the NQ, and short a few micros and vice versa if I still want to be partly in the trade. Sometimes I would forget to close out the opposite micros.

    Now I usually start a position using a few micros and jump on with the minis when the trade is justified, then I scale out with micors as tgt is approach. This means is a lot of slippage, but gives confidence to hold positions and limit volatility.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2023
    #445     Mar 17, 2023
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  6. Capture2.PNG I'm calling it a day, very hard in this environment. I made too many trades all scalping. Made 1 wrong trade when I accidentally sold nq trying to close out a micro right before econ numbers came out. It cost me 400 when I realized and closed it. If I had walk away could have been up over 3k on that one though!!

    Anyway here's my Friday pl as agreed.
    have a good weekend all. View attachment 309288

    Eidt 2: here's the bonehead click on wrong contract... was wondering why my account was going down, went to sell the micro think it never fired... then account was still moving around and notice i was short an nq.

    Updated phone ss to show time stamp
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2023
    #446     Mar 17, 2023
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  7. destriero

    destriero


    var by tick.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/7qjr27qvt2kjydo/2023-03-17_11-58-54 var noon pdt.mp4?dl=0
     
    #447     Mar 17, 2023
  8. destriero

    destriero

    Biggest position is switch lock in AAPL (long vol) and vols ticked but it's down on var related to marks/NBBO. AAPL was opened yday, long vol long delt, but I was up net of comms on it yesterday and down over delta pos today. Var to NBBO as it's large. Anyway, serial exp was fairly musted so the short gamma tickers bailed me out at the close.

    FRC acting stupid and the thing is going to cabinet. Cash-secured short puts marked to gains yesterday and there are scraps remaining into the close.
     
    #448     Mar 17, 2023
  9. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    I was right. Down day. Next week tshtf, red wsve
     
    #449     Mar 17, 2023
  10. destriero

    destriero

    25 beeps next week; short VX/short ES, 3x1.
     
    #450     Mar 17, 2023
    Adam777 and KCalhoun like this.