Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KCalhoun, Mar 12, 2023.

  1. KGTrader4

    KGTrader4

    in this case, you might actually be right, if we get that black swan event and SPX FALLS TO 3000, that’s what we need. Weak hands gone. But prolly wait 2 days for things to settle. I’m guessing though that this isn’t a black swan event. But WTF do I know. I hope it is. Sitting with a crapload of cash
     
    #11     Mar 12, 2023
  2. Businessman

    Businessman

    He said the big banks will benefit as they will get deposits.
     
    #12     Mar 12, 2023
    KCalhoun likes this.
  3. mervyn

    mervyn


    not yet, even if FDIC bails out SVB Monday, there are few other banks in the same maturity mismatch technical situation, unless FED can allow all of them to repo the treasury at no discount, and next Tuesday is the rate hike.

    will wait until 3700-3800 ish to buy.
     
    #13     Mar 12, 2023
  4. zdreg

    zdreg

    Lots of ifs in your remark. Therefore occurrence is unlikely.
     
    #14     Mar 12, 2023
  5. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    I don’t think black swan which usually comes when we are near ATH.
     
    #15     Mar 12, 2023
  6. destriero

    destriero

    Massive, face-ripping rally on Monday.
     
    #16     Mar 12, 2023
    Adam777, Wide Tailz, nitrene and 3 others like this.
  7. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    I hope not :D

    But I'll flip into TQQQ SOXL if so
     
    #17     Mar 12, 2023
  8. ktm

    ktm

    I keep hearing and reading that they are prepping a statement to be released before the US open tomorrow.

    The assets are there, it was just a liquidity issue. The FDIC is looking at guaranteeing a certain percentage of uninsured deposits will be returned over time and making a decent amount available short term. They are working this weekend to get a good number for both based on the value of the holdings.
     
    #18     Mar 12, 2023
  9. mervyn

    mervyn

    Liquidity doesn’t matter at this moment, if you have cash in svb, take it out on Monday.

    What you need to consider is that at least half of your deposits will not be available anytime soon, that’s the risk. Unless the Feb can repo long dated treasuries at zero discount.
     
    #19     Mar 12, 2023
  10. #20     Mar 12, 2023