Great analogy. The only thing that Charles and I have in common is that he "killed" people, while you and most people would "kill" to be me.
ROMIK: I say S&P will rally next week, you watch! KIMOR: I say S&P will tank next week, you watch! Next week S&P tanks...KIMOR: I told you, I told YOU, I fooking told you! etc, etc, etc
DOW, imo: next week: down medium term: down long term: still up if you look at week bars and the 2.5+ year bull. the long term trend could be violated soon but im thinking that would have to take another 20% on $indu from here to accomplish that. all in my opinion mind you.
================= Helpful downtrends by most any measure; Volente caught the quote''short rally'' unquote DIA,YM,SPY,ES.QQQ,NQ downtrending again ,again; oil & gas stock sector are Still nicely uptrending , fundamentals look fun /UP there also, especially with funds Not a prediction; probabilities ,Pabst. murray TT
Pabst: You were trading back in 87. To me, this look pretty much like 87 4 months before the crash. I know u trade the bonds, and some of your relatives trade the S&P. What's like 4 months before the crash on the floor? Big papers buying bonds like crazy, selling S&P on rebounds, all talk about the FED? I would love to hear what u saw back in 87 before the crash and how do u compare today with 87. Thanks
You might be interested in this look. (if it comes up blank, its a bandwidth issue ... try again later.) http://www.geocities.com/wpp289/charts.html I put this together the last time crash was on everyone's mind. Frankly, the current charts look much healthier, but I'm no expert. In 1987, the last time the indices hit their 50 week moving average is off the chart. Not sure if WWIII was a topic of discussion back then, but I think the intitial shock of the recent conflicts may subside quickly.... (hopefully anways)
All the 50 day moving averages are moving below the 200 day averages. The russell made a new low today. The only thing that saved the markets today was some put oi in the qqqqs and ibm. If we managed to blow through those supports we could had a vertical decline today. Actually, Im really surprised we didnt. Once support held volume fell off a cliff
I was around in 87, today's option ex and Market action in my opinion was very orderly. seems like all systems are go. The caveat moving foward is how the coming Isreal- Hezballah battle unfolds. If WMD's surface I believe the Market reaction will be big, especially if oil powerhouse Iran is drawn in. I don't think the Market crashes unless such a scenario unfolds. My guess is a drift around current levels until the situation is more clear. MS