Crash is Upon Us

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Pabst, Jul 21, 2006.

  1. Prevail

    Prevail Guest

    I've never met an economist, no matter how smart, who was a good trader.
     
    #201     Jul 31, 2006
  2. romik

    romik

    So that must apply vice versa?
     
    #202     Jul 31, 2006
  3. This has nothing to do with trading. This is about a coming recession. As a trader you can use that knowledge.
     
    #203     Jul 31, 2006
  4. hans37

    hans37

    umm, excuse me.
    But you seem to be spending an awful lot of energy trying to convince others of your belief in a global economic catastrophe by next year.
    It gives me the impression that you're insecure in your belief and want others to agree with you .

    If you are both correct and able to convince a multitude of followers all you are doing is sabotaging your own trading profit potential.
     
    #204     Jul 31, 2006
  5. Well you know the old saying. "Economists have predicted 14 our of our last 6 recessions".

    I think the guy makes very valid points and I agree with most of them, but our economy is too complex to regard anything as a certainty.
     
    #205     Jul 31, 2006
  6. Yeah, right. Tell that to the people that bought the Nikkei in the 90s
     
    #206     Jul 31, 2006
  7. Prevail

    Prevail Guest

    this has nothing to do with trading but a trader can use it? was that a joke?

    markets and economies are not always correlated.

     
    #207     Jul 31, 2006
  8. Crash...humm doubt that but this guys timing indicator does not bode well for the `03-`06 Bull market. Longer term he may be correct with his timing but it will take a few more months in my opinion.

    In fact this timing indicator is now at its lowest point since it began tracking in 1994! I don't care for the buy - sell decisions necessarily but the indicator in general does not spell a strong market going ahead.... it could be wrong :) Interesting anyway.

    http://www.martincapital.com/comp_ind.HTM
     
    #208     Jul 31, 2006
  9. SO WHERE IS THE CRASH?

    HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM???


    Oh wait..there is no crash.

    If you are short and didnt cover last week when the nas surged 3.5% consider covering this week becasue the nasdaq will go up another 4% or so and you will continue to loe money as you get squeezed.

    There is NO bad news..nada no reason to keep selling.

    Fed may raise rates by. another .25 AT MOST. But thats it.

    Mid eastisreal lebanon situation doesnt afect Ameirca. No biggie.

    Oil will keep going lower probablto 65 again. w3rd.

    And the nasdaq will rebound to 2300 again in a few months. If your shortyour toast. Bffft.
     
    #209     Aug 1, 2006
  10. LOL. You're asking ME if what I said was a joke? There is a coming recession, as a trader you can exploit this knowledge to initiate a relatively cheap trade that will become more and more expensive once reality begins to set in, and impossible once people begin taking action and/or sht hits the fan.

    "Markets and economies are not always correlated..." HMMM... Maybe during brief transitional periods when they decouple? Or under extraordinary circumstances, such as conflict, famine, disease, outside intervention, etc... I'm no guru but that statement just stinks of "i'm stretching here". Care to elaborate on why you think this is?

    Actually, let's face it. That was a stupid thing to say. Of course they are not ALWAYS correlated, much in the same way a birth control pill doesn't ALWAYS work, but it does the other 99.9% of the time... =(
     
    #210     Aug 1, 2006