That is a fine post there, Hydroblunt. Thanks. HolyGrail: Just because we are paranoid doesn't mean they aren't trying to sell to us. Seriously though, I don't see any paranoia there: I see reality.
This reminds me of the 50's when there were rumors of the car that could get 200 miles to the gallon, but alas the energy companies bought the patents and shit-canned the idea. Get real. If there was a good electric car people WOULD BUY THEM IN DROVES.
I have no problem with his past calls, it's just that he was a tag wrong this time round. If one posts a strongish opinion he just might get a similar response.
Everybody is entitled to error of judgement, by no means I was trying to insult Pabst, who am I compared to this guys creds, but there are all sorts of TFs that offer either more upside or vice versa, from Pabst statement it was not clear whether he was referring to shorter term or longer term, I happen to agree with the latter to a certain degree, there is still a bit more swinging to be done here IMHO before the "crash is upon us", bet hey, we are just throwing opinions here, so no hard feelings, OK? BTW, I happened to be that averaged long in denial until yesterday, who also happened to average $1,146 per unit, catch my drift?
Understood. But you'd be surprised how little the average guy in the Street or your soccer-mom neighbor has invested in the stockmarket. Thus, I really don't think that economic DEMAND collapsed during the Nasdaq decline. As for housing construction, I believe that it is roughly 6% of GDP, a significant number but not as big as many of the ET doomsdayers would lead you to believe. In fact, since 2000, it appears that the "Housing Bubble" is no longer effective in pushing up the GDP as much as it did between 1980 - 2000. See the two links below. http://www.housingbubblebust.com/Fed/GDPvsHSG.html http://www.housingbubblebust.com/Fed/HsgPercentGDP.html In otherwords, our Economy is much more diverse than people give it credit for.
Peas in a Pod do NOT have to conspire. And yes America is one big bubble of Consumerism. What most people think of as Capitalism in America is just Corporate Feudalism. The CEO's are the new Feudal Lords. Capitalism is an unknown ideal. Outside of a couple sectors in America competition/free enterprise is feared and hated. Out of College I worked for one of the big three automotive makers (not GM). Much of what you say is true. But all things come full circle. You can't get something for nothing BUT you can get nothing from something. And yes our Govt books are cooked. I would say every Govt in world cooks it's books these days to some extent. The US Govt with it's 2 party duopoply and it's cooked books---look more Soviet by the hour. The ony difference is the flashy veneer of Starbucks and a whole hell of a lot of debt. Not to mention the Massive Social Engineering (which is just Racial Socialism/Communism). I mean even Corporate America has instituted Chairman Mao's Sensitivity training! Only in an America! Traders are lucky. Capital Placement is one of the good places left in America to make a wad. Thank gawd for trading.
Very true. Wages trump all. As one grows older, you'll notice that friends and family don't discuss or rather disclose their salaries the same way folks do in their 20's. Thus I'm absolutely AMAZED at how much people deep in their careers make. We hear so much about the "working poor" that we ignore how many people with seemingly ordinary 9-5 jobs are in the six figure range. The spending habits of those folks are rather immune to a correction in equities or RE. Now if we ever see 15% unemployment again that will be another story all together......
Well it looks like the bulls have already priced in a pause for the August fed meeting. I was hoping we would have a clearer market direction before the meeting but it just isn't going to happen.