Crash is Upon Us

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Pabst, Jul 21, 2006.

  1. Pabst


    If you're long and under water you're living in denial.

    It's not so much conditions being bearish. It's more a case of longs just not seeing any upside potential in this climate. The only buyers I see are those who are averaging bad positions from higher levels and some shorts who are taking a few in.

    IMO SPX will be under 1200 by this time next week.
  2. Yup, what he said. I think it's very possible we see 1130 spx 1750 Nas and Dow 9300-9600 in the next 2-4 weeks.
  3. It does look like a lot of profit taking is occurring in some sectors. OIH has been a daily surprise to me for the last week. Obviously, tech is going to be a bust as far as upside momentum for the second half -- but that's not a new thought.

    The kicker is going to be the Fed meeting. Everyone is pushing for a pause. If we don't get it, I think we could see a dip below the late Oct/Nov lows. If we do get it, i see a short term rally as people talk past the Q3 weakness and prepare for Q4 markups.

    Just my $.02.
  4. yeah, and the fact that there has been "spectacular" earnings from AAPL, MOT and GOOG and share buyback from MSFT didn't even budge the market upwards.
  5. thorn


    Pabst, you beat me to it. You and I have always thought alike.
  6. thorn I gotta say, you piss a lot of people off but your calls are quite accurate (at least the ones I've read).

    We'll see how the market does next week.
  7. Pabst


  8. romik


    I like Thorns commentary regarding "we have always thought alike", what since April 06?

    Also, Pabst, I take it you are short now without a hedge? OK then.
  9. I also think we are going to get there, but I don't think we will get there next week.

    The most likely target on this go around is 1201-1206. Worst case scenario will be 1164-1170. If we drop to the lower number we will get another rally taking us close to 1200.
    #10     Jul 21, 2006