Crash is a very strong word, but accurate

Discussion in 'Trading' started by pfch1977, Dec 24, 2007.

  1. pfch1977


    "Crash" is a very strong word, but I can't think of any other way to state what is happening.

    Since the start of 2006, the $INDU has been on a tear. However, during that time, the US dollar has fallen dramatically. Now we have hit a double bottom on the ten year yield. What will happen next is the dollar will dramatically rise while oil makes its fall and then the INDU will go into the trash can in an obvious panic.

    I am a bear in this market and have been for sometime...
  2. Div_Arb


    I have sold everything and leveraged short positions based solely on your analysis.
  3. It's a valid theory but so far there is no confirmation just a test of the lows. It does merit a look.

    However a better question would be, where were you when the M top formed and confirmed :D

    Just kidding.

  4. Icarus5


    Interesting intermarket analysis ... do you have the results of any of your previous analysis, or is this your first time taking at shot at it?

    Thanks any,

  5. Interesting. Sounds like you have been short since '03. Great analysis and good luck with your prediction.
  6. doli


    Dollar collapse will propel the DOW higher. It's due to globalization of the market.
  7. Please, go back to sleep.
  8. bgp


    sure, and all our foreign friends are going to bail us out.

  9. pfch1977


    Ok, now I know this might seem like another joke post on ET, but lets discuss this logically. First, lets look at the dollar chart. Classic V-Bottom and the price is now in the upper Bollinger. For a while, its been traveling down the bottom Bollinger and recently turned up. Notice has been below the 50 day for sometime and now has just turned above it.

    I think it will take about 1-2 years for the dollar to get back to 92.63, but the bottom is definately in.
  10. pfch1977


    Next lets look at the $INDU. Classic head and shoulders. If it breaks that neckline, we are in for a crash and you know for certain that there are many very fragile events that will cause a breakdown.
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    #10     Dec 24, 2007