is this your Holy Grail? lol - well I call it a cheap crap. Market changes all the time and it is completely different between '95 and today. Only lazy people who do not adapt do not want to see it. It is true as you state that the basic human psychology is relatively simple and likely not changing much. But the reason we rule the planet is not only because we fear and are greedy but because we use our brain! That somehow completely dropped from your magical formula. To be consistent on a daily/weekly/whatever basis you can't be calling for black swans all the time - and still many people are being crushed by calling for equity crash, high yields, $30 crude etc for past several years.... "This time it is going to be different" is a dangerous statement which is often laughed at but...a trader should have the courage to take his shots.
Until what the end of the world!!!! You know you remind me of those guys standing on corner the world is coming to its end...'This message is brought to you by he forever hating church.' I'll bet my farm that the market will not go down more than 20% in next 2 months. Is that bold or not. PS I live in NYC
.."I'll bet my farm that the market will not go down more than 20% in next 2 months"... Where exactly is your farm... Here is a view from my farm in Palmerston North, New Zealand.. I say more than 20% in the next 6 months, so place your bets !! PS : And will have the America's Cup in July 2007...
So far so good on triggers pulled since Tuesday last week, date of post shown below. Here's the status report thus far: June 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks plunged, capping the Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst week since early March, as concern intensified banks will be saddled with losses on mortgage bonds...
Short interest is at an all time high right now. I just cannot see the market doing what everyone thinks.
The market will correct but maybe 14% in two months. The PPT will ensure there is no panic sell off. Short term crowd psychology no longer runs it course since the PPT began intervening in the US equity markets.