Crash 40% Down, In Two Weeks

if you look at the current chart pattern its very similar to the ascent that started in '95.

some factors against a crash:

1) low volatility
2) summer
3) broke and closed above previous highs.
4) double top didnt print, confirmation with price action at the highs is needed
5) bond market retracing losses
6) money waiting for a crash to buy into
7) rapid pace of globalization
8) oil dropped
9) gold dropped

 

How many bearish calls has he missed since 82? He should go be a porn actor with that stash...

 

lots of negativity regarding this

 

Agree!!! Equities are the last asset class for assention! Buybacks, earnings, falling housing, better return than bonds despite raising rates. PE's will peak into the low 20's before earnings trail.

 

Marketsurfer,

Any ideas where one can find this video?

JP

 

I anticipate a summer range trade, till the bigboys come back from their beach houses.

 

For that matter why does anyone compare 95 to now....

Everything has changed.....remember a lot more people trade now then before....since 2000...the charts patterns are not the same...well ok some of it...but you cant compare 20th century to the 21st it is just ludicrous.

 

volatility and price action are similar.

the low volatility crawl up is very similar to that period.

 

I give you the situation was different in 1994, but the price action from December 1994 looks the same as now.

Thats what gave us the meltdown in 2000. Momentum trading, Abby Cohen, "the new market", and all the rest

 

The market never changes. It is a reflection of human psychology and human psychology does not change!!!