Good observations ... Spectre2007 whats your take on the markets just now ... wait for a ten to twenty-five percent correction ... or what? Maybe a period of greater inflation? What are your favorite long term markets? I'm impressed with MXE RIO BVN WMMVF FLATX PRLAX EWZ GML ILF for long term but would like to enter at lower levels, it's just hard to see when and if those lower levels will come
Inflation is here even though its being underreported intentionally by the powers that be. The administration is understating inflation on purpose to keep bond yields tame. If bond yields rise on the benchmark 10 year, the housing and subprime debacle will have greater affects then they do now. If you go to the pump and pay more, its inflation. Grain prices are at highs, with oil conversion increasing speculative tendencies. In terms of goods and services higher transport costs, means higher end product costs. Otherwise the producers end up eating the difference, which doesnt paint a good picture for energy intensive production outlays. Utilities are still a great sector, consumer staples is another great sector. But only a few good tech companies should be in the portfolios. Just think of what tech products or services you use day to day and invest only in those. They will outperform most everything else, use Peter Lynch's model of portfolio allocation or picking great companies by day to day living needs. Stagflation will be the mainstay, you can smell it worldwide, the boom is in its final stages and world wide stagnant growth is the next macro scenario that is of a higher risk of happening. With liquidity being tightened, global rates higher and higher. Usually equity markets run stops to the upside, before a death spiral. On thursday they knew the main retail sales number Friday would come in poor. So they used thursday to run stops. Tax payer dollars in collaboration with wallstreet and some trading houses is being used to protect the sentiment of the american public by keeping equity sentiment uplifted. Its a great big game and once you realize whos interests are being protected you just roll with it and feed off them. The main powers that control this country are: 1) oil companies 2) defense companies 3) wallstreet 4) arab/GOP oil link They are interlocked symbiotic entities, they have more money then most other entities, and can control any large market.
The greatest threat to the USA is actually the US Gummint. After that, no other threat is significant.
I agree. When a crime is committed the primary suspect for experienced detectives is the person who would benefit most. Has it crossed your mind that behind global terrorism may be Russian operatives of the old KGB? The country that has benefited most from the rise in oil prices is Russia. I think they fooled US into playing their own game and invade Iraq. They planned all that while Democrats were sleeping thinking that Russians were their best allies. The Arabs are on the Russian side and Europeans like the high oil prices because their governments need the tax proceeds to pay for their large public sector. In short, everybody is against US at this point and the propaganda against America is more intense than it was during the old cold war. I think we are getting closer to the point of first strike attempt. This is why Bush wants to place the missile defense shield in Europe. Ron
death spirals are instigated using large sums of capital, that capital even though large has to be recycled since its finite. Once you stop recouping your capital, you loose the ability of market influence or impact. so when a defined trend is underway occassionally you will have intermediate term death spirals of about 100 points or so on the sp500, these death spirals are just mechanims to steal money or run stops on a massive scale. but intermediate term death spirals are limited in scope. The insitigators of the death spiral are the ones that inflect the market back up. afterall its in the best interest of everyone to preserve the upward trend to parabolic eccliption. If you observe the tic chart, and you sense the next tic should be down, but it abruptly moves up by orders that fall in the 10000 contract range, then you know thats what the 'whales' agenda is. If you observe tic patterns and charts you can spot these 'killer whales' swimming with the fish as they corral the fish and run their stops. the market can correct 10% and still preserve its trend. Its all a matter of situation and circumstance.
As always Ron and Spectre, some quality commentary.. Let's not fool ourselves.. http://www.funlol.com/funpages/jewish-hey-ya.html ...they control everything.
I thought so, if you think swapping in and out of 3 shares of GOOG makes you a trader you suffer from serious dimentia.
And who do you think controls Russia? Let's not forget history. American Bankers and wall street financed the Bolshevik revolution.