Everything in the market is about probabilities, not yes/no. I would estimate at least a 10% chance of a market collapse Monday, which is a lot. Trump will not back down until he gets some concession, even a small one, so he can declare victory. I don't see any concessions coming on Monday, and there is the very real possibility that more countries could declare retaliatory tariffs on Monday. Panic has not yet set in the market. On the other hand, every world leader knows that the best way to get Trump to back down is to stroke his ego. Once some of them do that, Trump will back down and the market will have a huge relief rally.
I still can't Fathom that 1 person can create literally a world wide market crash. He vowed not to back down. Other world leaders are not going to bow down and make concessions with him. I don't think this is even plausible...and the problem is that he put tarrifs on countless countries so for all.of them to collectively work together will be impossible... No other president would have pushed tarriffs, why fight with other trading partners, this could have been much different to confront than by pushing high tarrifs on countries like he did..... Once people start losing their jobs, seeing high inflation kick in and a slow down in spending they will start to protest.... And 10% chance is extremely high!!
I like Cramer. I really believe he wants to help the average investor. If people want to slander and despise him, that's an indicator of their character. Pride always leads to a downfall. Great traders always say humility is needed in this business. I never follow his picks but I do listen to his opinions. He has a huge following. I don't think there will be a crash Monday. But Cramer could be right. If Trump doesn't turn from his madness, this is a 50% drawdown from 6140.
Trump's tariffs will cause worldwide economic disaster and electoral disaster just like the Mckinley and Smoot Hawley tariffs.
You're absolutely fucking right about that. How the fuck can one lone individual have that kind of impact on the market? But let's not forget, tariffs, which are essentially taxes, are supposed to be under Congress's control. Congress is supposed to be the one pulling those levers. But Trump? He just decided to go rogue and drop those bombs without even bothering to go through the usual channels. Talk about a power grab. As I see it, this country has already gone down the fucking drain. The system’s supposed to have checks and balances, but here we are, with that orange megalomaniac calling the shots like he's the only one with a god complex.
Canada and Mexico went out of their way to please him. Result? Threats of annexation and more tariffs. Taiwan's government convinced TSMC to invest heavily in new factories in the US, even though that would hurt their competitiveness and share price (factories in the US are more expensive and less productive). Result? 32% tariff. The US has an 18 billion trade ***surplus*** with Australia. Its Prime Minister praised the Great Leader. Result? 10% tariff on everything from a country that buys more from the US than it sells to. Etc.
The checks and balances were dismantled by a bunch of octogerian GOP senators who were scared shitless of... being primaried... in their 70-80s... with no financial need for themselves, their children or their grandchildren...
Totally. If China wasn’t threatening to beat the shit out of Taiwan, TSMC wouldn’t have even considered this. But now, with both China and the US playing their parts, it’s hard to say who’s the bigger menace.
There is a real possibility of a crash on Monday. There were multiple attempts to recover on Thursday & Friday but the selling overwhelmed those rallies. If Europe puts in retaliatory tariffs & Trump continues his tariff rhetoric, the markets will keep going down. You need some good news to halt the collapse. The Fed wont lower rates & the tariffs if they go through will just cat as a massive consumer tax hike. Sentiment is so bad even Sunday could go limit down. The only reason to buy this market is if you believe the market action is just a growth scare & not a recession.