Cramer - Canada = investing hot spot

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Kassz007, May 19, 2010.

  1. And when she does visit, nobody cares. In fact, and it never fails, the debate is rehashed as to whether or not we should do away with the British monarchy.
     
    #31     May 26, 2010
  2. Bingo. The knee-jerk reaction to increasing asset prices is to call it a bubble. The fact of the matter is that nobody knows if a bubble is a bubble until it pops. Sometimes assets increase in value for a reason, not because of irrationality.

    I'm not saying that Canadian real estate ISN'T a bubble, but it's impossible to claim that it is. Those who do are merely speculating.
     
    #32     May 26, 2010
  3. pitz

    pitz

    Of course -- the Canadian banks are awesome, because nearly their entire at-risk loan books, are guaranteed against default by the government, while they still reap nice lending spreads.
     
    #33     May 27, 2010
  4. Gaurenteed against default or not, the fact of the matter is they did not need that gaurentee because they do not take excessive risk that threatens the entire financial system.
     
    #34     May 27, 2010
  5. pitz

    pitz

    I disagree here; the Canadian banks are just as leveraged, if not more leveraged than the US banks. The key difference is that the Canadian banks did not have runs on their long-term assets because, quite frankly, they do not hold much in terms of long-term assets, and they do not have a duration gap in their portfolios.

    The gaurantees against default also mean that if depositors were to start a run against Canadian banks, that the Canadian banks have the ability to raise interest rates on loans dramatically, causing said loans to go into default, against which, they could collect on the guarantees, and defeat a bank run. A similar setup did not exist in the USA because:

    a) A good chunk of loans on the banks' books were not guaranteed against default and;

    b) Most loans in the USA are 30-year fixed rate, not the 100% adjustable rate mortgage books run by the Canadian banks;


    Housing is likely to crash in Canada in the coming quarters/years, but it is very unlikely that this will cause the banks serious problems, for the above reasons. A housing crash in Canada will actually accelerate banks' profitability, since Canadian banks are effectively 'short' the housing market.
     
    #35     May 27, 2010