cramer gets A++ in my book for his market timing for this year. No one has done it better than him this year. Now that he got his 10K in dow, he's turning somewhat bearish, or atleast bearish for today.
Cramer looking better every point. I predict that 54% of the bashers will become Cramer subscribers by the end of Jan 2004.
Boy, he and Krudlow sure did call the freaking TOP with their BULLISHNESS in the metals stocks early last week, when Newmont was Double-Topping at $49.90 and on its way to a 20% decline! Anyone with an ounce of brain-matter could see that NEM was making a double-top. ARogue Trader even mentioned it ahead of time on one of the ET threads. Just goes to show that Crapper doesn't know anything about trading, or charts and his wife was the genius behind his hedge-fund! Those 2 guys are the worst bunch of Cheerleaders I have ever seen!
I actually use a 3-min bar chart, and a 15-minute to look at overall trend. An example of a trade would be this: I will keep staying .06-.07 off of the inside bid w/ 1000 ,06 off, 1000 .07 cents off, and 5,000 .08 off, 5,000 .09 cents off. As the stock is on its dip, I watch volume to make sure there isnt a reversal taking place as I start getting hit, I will watch see market maker action (example, if MLCO is a buyer, do they pop back in on the bid and if so where), as the stock starts retrending, lets say i know am long 6,000 I will start covering, 1,000 .03 higher, 500 .04 higher, 2500 .05 higher, if im getting hit, Ill let the rest run and possibly add to it on the next dip or just keep a trailing stop. its classic scalping, the only time Im really relying on the technicals is when I am looking for reversals of the immediate trend. I know this isnt totally clear, especially if your not experienced. alot of this relys on having a feel for what your trading as well (the unexplainable aspect of trading...the "intuitive" part, that is what i tink is one of the most important parts of trading).
cramer was right about the melt up. will he be right this time? James J. Cramer Take Profit Before the Selloff Intensifies History says we're ripe for one here. Don't get greedy.
Actually he was bullish until about Naz 2000 or so, when he issued his famous 'I was wrong, I changed my mind" missive. So technically, he was not bullish ALL the way down.
If you look at a weekly and monthly chart for the $spx in the 1973 to 1976 time frame, there was a melt up from the bottom that retraced about 60% of the down move. On today's S&P500 chart that would mean a melt up until about 1200-1250. Then there was a correction into a monthly flag. I think the 73-75 bear move was most similar to our recent bear move. The exception *might* be that instead of then drifting sideways until the 1980's, this time, because the economy is in much better shape, it might zigzag its way back up to the top over time. (of course this is just wild ass speculation)