cramer 2007 pick(s)

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by S2007S, Jan 3, 2007.

  1. gaj

    gaj

     
    #31     Jan 5, 2007
  2. gaj

    gaj

    #32     Jan 5, 2007
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    #33     Jan 5, 2007
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    #34     Jan 5, 2007
  5. gaj

    gaj

    actually, max, i've run studies on cramer. i no longer have them because they're not relevant, for the most part, to me making money. his performance on picks - on virtually every level - does NOT differ substantially from the indices.

    i'm not cherry picking stuff EITHER way. he didn't call the end of the bubble - he told simple profit taking. something he's done a million times before and after. congrats, good call. and when it WAS the top, he said "i called the top!" even though he hadn't. he toots his own horn when he's right, admits a few mistakes (which is more than most people do), but acts like his picks are brilliant when they're not.

    look, he's willing to claim a stock that went down 35% (crox) as a 'winner' - damn well, that most of that 'loss' in the winners of the new world would have materialized and capsized. he took a 50%+ loss on NT and then doubled down on it in action alerts, for crying out loud! i'm not going to search the hundreds of posts on TSCM for you because it's there in the archives, but here's a simple summary: cramer kept wanting to BUY the naz stocks for longer term plays most of the way down. he openly mocked those who called for a crash, and mocked those who said naz 1500. it's in the archives, i've found 'em before to read them, it's time that you do a little research on your own.

    oh, i found this post on ET with exactly 3 seconds worth of searching (though i'm certain that someone posted end of year results, which aren't any better):

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...75&highlight=cramer+action+alerts#post1277475

    Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio performance:

    CRAMER 2006 YTD Return 4.33 %
    SP500 (SPX) 2006 YTD Return 11.68 %

    CRAMER RETURN SINCE INCEPTION (1/1/2002) 24.58 %
    SP500 (SPX) RETURN SINCE INCEPTION 22.03 %


    and, as i mentioned in the followup post, that DOESN'T include his negative return in late 2001 - when they scrapped the portfolio and started a new one, where the performance was WORSE than the s&p.

    yeah, they reset the clock on action alerts. another neat marketing trick.
     
    #35     Jan 6, 2007
  6. This guy claims Cramer is 47% accurate with Ken Fisher at an astounding 71%:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/23713

    "Larry MacDonald submits: One of the great resources on the Web, in my opinion, is the Forbes column written by Ken Fisher. The CXO Advisory Group currently ranks Fisher No. 1 in its survey of over 35 media-based stock-market forecasters. He has an accuracy rate of 71% (Jim Cramer is at 47%)."
     
    #36     Jan 9, 2007
  7. cramer aa performance for 2006. +6.93
     
    #37     Jan 9, 2007
  8. gaj

    gaj

    thanks vhehn...

    max - i'd have no problem backing a 47% winner and dissing a 70% winner if mr seventy was getting 1 point on his winners, and 3 points on his losers, while mr forty seven percent was doing the opposite.

    cramer doesn't do that, unfortunately. i believe, though i didn't do actual calculations (i eyeballed results) that his mad money picks would be better if it was "stop after X points" where X can be 1 or 2 and let winners run. however, *any* system has those results as well.

    i've read of people using that as a demonstration for newer traders..."you" pick stocks however you want, and i'll have a monkey do it, along with buy or sell, with stops on losers. and inevitably, the 'you' who doesn't use tight money management will more often lose money compared to the monkey.
     
    #38     Jan 10, 2007
  9. I think the major flaw in the Cramer analysis I always see, all of them biased to the bashing side, is that you can't just take a pick and x number of days later look at the current price and say "LOSER!" While Cramer's picks are well documented, I see none of his critics document how they put those picks against a position closing date with an attendant price on his sell recommendations.

    Cramer's own staff isn't helping matters when they post the WLT gaffe I mentioned earlier in the this thread:

    "Now, WLT. The company declared a $24.70 dividend, hence the huge whack it took in the share price. Why Cramer's staff has that on the Worst Picks List at a 45% negative is a wonder."
     
    #39     Jan 10, 2007
  10. gaj

    gaj

     
    #40     Jan 10, 2007