Glancing over at tradesports.com (9/16 5:21AM) CPI to be ON or OVER 0.2% Bid : - Ask: 51.9 Last: 50 Volume : 100 Life of contact shows low/hi of 47 and for much of yesterday the last was under 50.
CPI and core CPI 0.1% below expectations of 0.2% Also, "new claims filed for unemployment benefits rose last week by a seasonally adjusted 16,000 to 333,000." Below expectations of 345k. Pretty quiet.
Don't question your government. If they say that the price of gas is down this year, why do you even bother to double check the price on the pump. If the gas at your corner station is up-- then he's gouging. We all know that the ethanol tax credit rebates make you gas more efficient and cheaper..... Seriously though, blink twice. Accept the number and then buy more physical gold. That's what I do every time.
Its that time of the month, yes CPI: Ye olde gamblers at Tradesports ye be wagering : CPI OVER 0.2% (Oct 19) Bid: 40.1 Ask: 58.0 Last: 58.0 Volume: 140 Anyone notice oil's runup over the past month? This has got to be beaten easily. And in the second part of the doubleheader we get everyone's favorite sector, Housing! Housing Starts to be ON or OVER 1950k (Oct 19) Bid: 47.0 Ask: 51.0 Last: 51.0 Volume: 27 They should've released these on a Friday so we can hear all the doom and gloom these two reports should reveal, unless, someone with a special #2 pencil made sure these numbers look purdy.
From CBSMarketwatch CPI: .2% Core CPI: .3% Here's the kicker: "Energy prices, down for three straight months, fell 0.4 percent in September, led by a 3.4 percent decline in natural gas prices. Gasoline prices rose 0.1 percent. Fuel oil prices rose 2.1 percent." Anyone notice gas prices rising only .1% ?? WTF?! This is almost as unbelieveable as Ahnold saying a Richard Nixon speech was a breath of fresh air. For the Weimar Germany fans here is something for you: <IMG SRC=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/image.asp?track=201&guid={333DBB47-21B9-40BE-8D09-A3859DC184C0}> Oh My God, look at that inflation! Out of control! DOOM! Now for housing (CBSMarketwatch) "U.S. homebuilders slowed their pace of new construction in September, with housing starts coming in 6 percent lower to put the seasonally adjusted, annual rate at 1.898 million units, the Commerce Department said Tuesday." "While housing starts were likely held back by poor weather in September, the leading indicator of building permits points to stronger starts in October," said economist John Ryding of Bear Stearns. A dip but it keeps rolling along.
Why does the govt bother to report "core CPI". There isn't a single person in America that doesn't buy food and energy. Pull up a chart of unleaded gas and light sweet crude for sept. They didn't fall. They were up substantially. Wouldn't it be great if we could all use these type of phoney numbers. Are health care costs rising too much? Well, just strip out those "volatile" maintenance and administrative costs. Is a Ferrari out of your reach? Well, duh, strip out those "volatile" branding and image costs. We can all live in a world of .0001% inflation
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% Good trend comment on ethanol tax credit,Praetorial 2. 1]Set my cruise control @ lower speed this year. 2]Insulated home to Canadian standards years ago; even though live in mid south. 3]Trees drop thier leaves around home, about the time we need more sunlight. 7]Yes , I do favor track record of tax cutters, have plenty of Heinz Ketchup also, still like some old Schwager patterns, like ''olive oil''
Oct CPI CPI .6% core .2% vs expectations .4% core .1% Gas up 8.6% Prescription Durgs up 3.5% Food prices that spiked in PPI not showing up as much in CPI. Real earnings down 0.4% (All that retail bullshit the other day about higher earnings were due to cost cutting not selling more.) Long bond not moving much even with higher inflation numbers the past two days. ANd somewhere the Weimar Germany fans are cursing at their screens "We're DOOOOMED!"
Bonds getting a boost today despite 2 bad inflation reports. 10 year yield below where it was last week despite that rate hike. Is there anything that will bring higher rates?
EUR/USD >1.50 That should get them to defend the currency, not until. Watch yield curve invert then though as brief spike in interest rates is not maintainable. Nice spike though for those who are prepared.