Covid shutdowns coming . Record complacency is interesting

Let’s see if we get a 10-20% shock move down as states one after another start shutting down

 

Let’s see if we get a 10-20% move up as US announces new stimulus that gets sent straight to Robinhood accounts.

 

In the past has predicting a large move in the market been profitable? What are you personally doing to trade around your down 10% to 20% "shock" expectation?

 

I have no expectations. I said “ let’s see “ . We break 3480 I’ll short big . I don’t front run .

 

You ride it, and ride it HARD!!

 

I spent a lot of time around a lot of traders. It was rare I got advice that held the test of time. A Trader said to me when I asked him about the future and I told him what I thought, he said "Trade the market you have in front of you and not the one you "hope" will happen". I did not always listen, but this has saved me a lot of money over the years and helped me focus on what to do today to make money today.

 

if the first shutdown taught us anything, is that we know nothing and need to go long.

 

I´m no longer an active trader so not planning to touch any position, but there was a huge drop in the markets before they spiked up last spring, one could have improved significantly their yearly returns not being long during part of that drop

 

I don't ever short the US indices. But they can't go straight up for ever. If the Dow drops much from where it is now I'll close my longs at b/e at worst and cancel my pyramids and wait for it to hit bottom and start going up again. Then we start all over again.

 

Odds are a shutdown in the US will work no better than it did before, especially given a large proportion of the US population don’t believe in shutdowns, or in PPE for that matter.

Odds are a Covid vaccine will be mostly ineffective, especially on older people or after six months as new Covid strains emerge, just like with influenza.

Covid is now endemic and spreads among various mammals, allowing for additional opportunities for reinfection of humans.

The world had its chance to contain this virus in January through coodinated shutdowns, border closings, and PPE mandates. That chance is over and Covid is here to stay for generations to come.

The market has or will price in this realization soon.

Those who make needed lifestyle changes and possibly undergo genetic testing to determine relative risks for severe outcomes of a Covid infection, will be in a better position to protect themselves.

If the general population of the world make needed lifestyle changes, the resulting increase in productivity could be a net bullish factor for future economic growth.