COVID Outdoor Spread - The Science

Discussion in 'Politics' started by gwb-trading, May 3, 2021.

  1. userque

    userque

    Would love to know how @jem squares this circle.

    [​IMG]
     
    #31     May 11, 2021
  2. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    covidiots never concede, they just move the goal post and onto the next "my rights" aggrievement spiel.

    wuhan is fake news to hurt POTUS}}it's just a spicy flu}}there's no need for PPE}}Lack of PPE was Obama's fault}}Shutting down for a month, are you crazy, for what 99.9% survival?}}Trump responded great, blame China}}all those BLMers must not care about COVID if they're outside and close to each other}}no shoes, no shirt, no service, but not like that}}private companies should not moderate content that goes against TOS if we're spreading fake news}}Masks don't shield against physical particles}}Trump leading vaccine development through warp speed}}Give me HCL and bleach, they're safe}}I don't want Biden's vaccine
     
    #32     May 11, 2021
    userque likes this.
  3. Ricter

    Ricter

    Uh huh. It was you.
    :D
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2021
    #33     May 11, 2021
    userque likes this.
  4. This poor woman tested positive for noassatall.
     
    #34     May 11, 2021
  5. jem

    jem

    WTF...where did it say it was spread outdoors?

    There are pictures of people shaking hands and talking inside the WH too.
    You think the housekeepers got it in the rose garden?
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2021
    #35     May 11, 2021
  6. CDC Misleads: Calls .01 Percent Chance of Infection, ‘Less Than 10 Percent’

    The CDC has published a technically true — but profoundly misleading — statistic about the chance of outdoor infection. The story is brought to us by New York Times journalist David Leonhardt in his daily, “The Morning Newsletter”:

    When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors. Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission.

    So, what’s the actual number?

    The number is almost certainly misleading. It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces (as I explain below). An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.

    That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me.

    That is not merely an exaggeration. It’s what is known as a whopper.

    Leonhardt makes an apt point:

    Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.


    https://www.nationalreview.com/corn...ent-chance-of-infection-less-than-10-percent/
     
    #36     May 11, 2021
    jem and Tsing Tao like this.
  7. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    More from our resident Coronaphobic.

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    From the "COVID deniers" at the NY Times.

    A Misleading C.D.C. Number

    When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors. Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission.

    But the number is almost certainly misleading.

    It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces (as I explain below). An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.

    That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me. The rare outdoor transmission that has happened almost all seems to have involved crowded places or close conversation.

    Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.

    struggling to communicate effectively, and leaving many people confused about what’s truly risky. C.D.C. officials have placed such a high priority on caution that many Americans are bewildered by the agency’s long list of recommendations. Zeynep Tufekci of the University of North Carolina, writing in The Atlantic, called those recommendations “simultaneously too timid and too complicated.”

    They continue to treat outdoor transmission as a major risk. The C.D.C. says that unvaccinated people should wear masks in most outdoor settings and vaccinated people should wear them at “large public venues”; summer camps should require children to wear masks virtually “at all times.”


    These recommendations would be more grounded in science if anywhere close to 10 percent of Covid transmission were occurring outdoors. But it is not. There is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table.

    Today’s newsletter will be a bit longer than usual, so I can explain how the C.D.C. ended up promoting a misleading number.

    The Singapore mystery
    If you read the academic research that the C.D.C. has cited in defense of the 10 percent benchmark, you will notice something strange. A very large share of supposed cases of outdoor transmission have occurred in a single setting: construction sites in Singapore.


    In one study, 95 of 10,926 worldwide instances of transmission are classified as outdoors; all 95 are from Singapore construction sites. In another study, four of 103 instances are classified as outdoors; again, all four are from Singapore construction sites.

    This obviously doesn’t make much sense. It instead appears to be a misunderstanding that resembles the childhood game of telephone, in which a message gets garbled as it passes from one person to the next.

    The Singapore data originally comes from a government database there. That database does not categorize the construction-site cases as outdoor transmission, Yap Wei Qiang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Health, told my colleague Shashank Bengali. “We didn’t classify it according to outdoors or indoors,” Yap said. “It could have been workplace transmission where it happens outdoors at the site, or it could also have happened indoors within the construction site.”

    As Shashank did further reporting, he discovered reasons to think that many of the infections may have occurred indoors. At some of the individual construction sites where Covid spread — like a complex for the financial firm UBS and a skyscraper project called Project Glory — the concrete shells for the buildings were largely completed before the pandemic began. (This video of Project Glory was shot more than four months before Singapore’s first reported Covid case.)

    Because Singapore is hot year-round, the workers would have sought out the shade of enclosed spaces to hold meetings and eat lunch together, Alex Au of Transient Workers Count Too, an advocacy group, told Shashank. Electricians and plumbers would have worked in particularly close contact.

    one of the papers analyzing Singapore, told me, “and ultimately decided on a conservative outdoor definition.” Another paper, published in the Journal of Infection and Public Health, counted only two settings as indoors: “mass accommodation and residential facilities.” It defined all of these settings as outdoors: “workplace, health care, education, social events, travel, catering, leisure and shopping.”

    I understand why the researchers preferred a broad definition. They wanted to avoid missing instances of outdoor transmission and mistakenly suggesting that the outdoors was safer than it really was. But the approach had a big downside. It meant that the researchers counted many instances of indoors transmission as outdoors.

    And yet even with this approach, they found a minuscule share of total transmission to have occurred outdoors. In the paper with 95 supposedly outdoor cases from Singapore, those cases nonetheless made up less than 1 percent of the total. A study from Ireland, which seems to have been more precise about the definition of outdoors, put the share of such transmission at 0.1 percent. A study of 7,324 cases from China found a single instance of outdoor transmission, involving a conversation between two people.

    “I’m sure it’s possible for transmission to occur outdoors in the right circumstances,” Dr. Aaron Richterman of the University of Pennsylvania told me, “but if we had to put a number on it, I would say much less than 1 percent.”

    ditching their masks, even indoors, while others continue to harass people who walk around outdoors without a mask.

    All the while, the scientific evidence points to a conclusion that is much simpler than the C.D.C.’s message: Masks make a huge difference indoors and rarely matter outdoors.

    masks remain rare.

    It certainly doesn’t seem to be causing problems. Since January, daily Covid deaths in Britain have declined more than 99 percent.
     
    #37     May 12, 2021
    jem likes this.
  8. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    Don't worry, you're safe:

    upload_2021-5-12_8-1-28.png
     
    #38     May 12, 2021
    Ricter likes this.
  9. jem

    jem

    Who needs science and data when you have covid fear porn?
    Certainly not the left and their drones and mushrooms.



     
    #39     May 12, 2021
  10. jem

    jem

    great article....

    The NYT turned on this outdoor transmission and masking outdoors crap about a month ago.

    Its possible they are just being rational or

    as some have noticed in the past they know they lead the lefty brigade and realize they have to start turning the ship....

    I suspect hey realize because Texas and Florida have not had a covid apocalypse the longer this irrational fear campaign goes on... the more voters will be looking to blame democrats and make a change. So they are starting with an simple and easy step... No need to mask outdoors since there is no documented outdoor spread(or virtually no outdoor spread)



     
    #40     May 12, 2021