Do you think that "rapid acceleration" is a quantifiable amount without further specification? If so, please tell me - in numbers - what that means. Percentages are fine. 20%? 40%?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/white-house-cuts-city-funds-coronavirus-430498 White House looks at cutting Covid funds, newborn screenings in ‘anarchist’ cities Documents show funding for a host of health programs is at risk under the president’s order targeting liberal strongholds. The White House is considering slashing millions of dollars for coronavirus relief, HIV treatment, screenings for newborns and other programs in Democratic-led cities that President Donald Trump has deemed “anarchist jurisdictions,” according to documents obtained by POLITICO. New York, Portland, Ore., Washington, D.C., and Seattle could lose funding for a wide swath of programs that serve their poorest, sickest residents after the president moved last month to restrict funding, escalating his political battle against liberal cities he’s sought to use as a campaign foil.
This nursing home situation only serves to underline that when the prevalent spread of COVID-19 is high in a community it is nearly impossible to protect nursing home occupants -- even when you don't allow visitors, etc. There are simply too many paths for COVID to arrive into the facility via food deliveries, staff, maintenance workers, etc. when COVID is widespread in the community outside the nursing home. All 62 residents at Kansas nursing home have COVID, 10 have died https://www.cbsnews.com/news/corona...ll-residents-some-staff-have-covid-10-deaths/
'Rapid Acceleration' -- new daily cases rise steeply around the U.S. Coronavirus Cases Rise To Highest Level Since Late July https://www.npr.org/sections/health...s-cases-rise-to-highest-level-since-late-july With coronavirus outbreaks picking up speed in dozens of states, the U.S. is now climbing steadily toward a new peak in cases that may soon rival the summer surge — when the country hit more than 60,000 infections on average a day for weeks in a row. On Friday, U.S. cases surged higher than they had since late July, hitting nearly 70,000 in one day. The seven-day daily average is now more than 58,000 cases a day, as of Tuesday. New cases have gone up by more than 30% from two weeks ago. New Daily Cases Climb Steeply Around The U.S. Last week, 17 states — primarily in the Midwest and Great Plains — posted new daily records, according to the COVID Tracking Project. Hospitalizations also increased in more than 40 states, with the numbers of people currently hospitalized reaching more than 37,000, which is more than half the highs recorded during the spring and summer surges. Unlike during the summer, when a handful of larger states drove up the numbers, the current growth is diffused across many states. "It's just these roving hot spots in a country that's big, and different areas are on different clocks," says Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. The summer may have acted as a kind of buffer, he says, for the middle of the country, keeping the virus at lower levels in the community because people spent more time outside. But Adalja says more people congregating indoors, including students returning to schools and college campuses, and general fatigue around pandemic precautions are all likely propelling this latest growth in cases. "There may be places that were not hit hard early on where the virus finds it very hospitable because people are complacent," Adalja says. Which states are driving the surge? The outbreaks raging in the Midwest play a major role in the rising numbers, with 57% growth in daily new infections over the past two weeks. That region (defined as 12 states by the U.S. census) accounted for more than a third of all new cases in the U.S. last week, according to NPR's analysis of CDC data. Illinois and Wisconsin each added nearly 20,000 new cases in the past seven days, rivaling much larger states like California. Hospitalizations more than doubled in the past two weeks in Wisconsin, and the state stood up a field hospital to make room for the growing number of patients. While the overall numbers in North and South Dakota are lower than those of neighboring states, their rate of new infections per capita continues to eclipse all other states — and even what Arizona recorded during its devastating summer surge. "We are caught in the middle of a COVID storm," said North Dakota's Republican Gov. Doug Burgum at a press event this week as he displayed a map with alarming positivity rates across the region, from Iowa to Idaho to Kansas. The outbreak has increasingly fanned out to Western states, too. Montana, Wyoming and Utah have high per capita rates of new infections on par with the Midwest, and even states that have successfully kept the virus in check for months are now seeing a spike. In New Mexico, daily new infections more than doubled over the past two weeks and are now at the highest levels since the pandemic began. The South, which includes Florida and Texas, accounts for close to 40% of total cases in the past week, with cases rising quickly in some states like Tennessee and Mississippi. While the Northeast has a much smaller share of cases compared to other regions, the average case count doubled over the past month. Will more deaths soon follow? The pandemic was predicted to gain traction in the fall, a time when respiratory viruses typically peak as people spend more time indoors. But the steep rise has come even sooner than some public health experts anticipated. "It's happening at a rate that is even faster than I might have expected," says Dr. Peter Hotez, dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. "I predict then we'll soon start seeing the number of deaths go up." Along with the arrival of cooler temperatures in Northern states, Hotez points out that some of those states have resisted mandates requiring face masks and social distancing. Some of the growth in cases is fueled not by new spikes but by a steady, continued slow-burn of infections in states with large populations. Even California and Texas — both states where cases had dropped off significantly in late summer — each continue to post more than 20,000 cases a week. Hotez says models forecasting upward of 170,000 deaths in about the next four months — and Dr. Anthony Fauci's warnings that the U.S. could eventually surpass 100,000 cases a day — may come to pass, given the current trajectory of the pandemic. "I think that's very real, and especially if we don't have any kind of national containment strategy," Hotez says. "The expectation is that cases will also accelerate across the country." Increasingly, the virus is sweeping through rural communities that had been spared earlier in the pandemic. "We've really switched to the infections emerging in the last strongholds, which are rural areas of Iowa," says Dr. Christine Petersen at the University of Iowa. "This is a kind of a pattern that's consistent across at least the Midwest." Though many communities are eager to open up businesses and social events, they lack the tools to do so safely, says Adalja. "The biggest issue is still the fact that many of these states don't have the capacity to test, trace and isolate," Adalja says, referring to the proven public health strategy that helps box in new infections before they can spread. "It's not necessarily about reopening," Adalja says. "It's about reopening with a plan and the public health infrastructure that's going to be able to absorb the inevitable number of cases that you get."
'Rapid Acceleration' -- the 7 day average of COVID cases surging more than 10% in a state should easily meet the definition of "rapid acceleration" of a disease. In fact medical papers show that 1% growth rate over a week should meet the definition of rapid growth. From - https://money.yahoo.com/coronavirus...wave-starts-to-swamp-us-europe-173323774.html
First, let me commend you on finally coming around to answering the "how do you quantify what rapid acceleration is". It only took a few days for you to answer this. 10% is the number, is it? The threshold where "Rapid acceleration" begins? So if a state has 100 cases, and goes to 110, that is rapid acceleration, is it? You mention 1% in medical papers as "rapid growth". So going from 100 to 101 is rapid growth?
Actually as shown by the medical papers the threshold is 1% for the 7 day average of cases in a mere week period. 10% as shown by the chart is easily above the threshold.
So again, if the 7DMA is 100 and it goes to 101, that is "rapid acceleration"? and you agree with this? Just curious, but what is "acceleration" that is not rapid if the numbers only go up in increments of 1?