https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...possible-approaching-COVID-herd-immunity.html University of Alabama epidemiologist says it is 'possible' the US is nearing herd immunity as COVID infections drop 77% in six weeks - after Johns Hopkins professor claimed pandemic will be GONE by April Suzanne Judd, PhD, an epidemiologist at the University of Alabama, made the claim in an interview on Friday Judd said 'it's possible we could be approaching herd immunity' as COVID infections plummet She estimates that another 10 untested people had COVID for every one who tested positive for the virus Many cases were mild or totally asymptomatic, and it could mean a vast number are already immune
Actually at the beginning of the pandemic when we had limited testing there may have been 10 untested infected people for each proven tested case. However now that testing is widely available the ratio of infected untested people is merely 3 for every one tested proven case. This ratio is proven out in scientific research of community waste, and other means. This means that the current "herd immunity" levels projected by Judd and the other doctor at Hopkins are way over the actual levels. Assumptions that 55% of the U.S. population have already been naturally been infected by these two are totally incorrect. Seeing that the IFR in the U.S. currently is 0.55% --- if 55% of the U.S. population was infected. This would represent 182 million people infected. 0.55% of this 182 million people would be dead. -- meaning the number of U.S. COVID deaths would be over 1 million current U.S. deaths from COVID. We are only at about 500,000 COVID deaths in the U.S. so clearly the projects from Judd and anyone else projecting that 55% of the U.S. population has already been infected are not correct. The U.S. currently has 28 million confirmed COVID cases. It is like that we have an additional 84 million untested COVID infections over time in the population. The total number of cases and possible infections would be 112 million which is 33% of the U.S. population. Seeing that re-infections are becoming more prevalent -- and natural protection in individuals lasts only 3 to 8 months on average if they had a minor case -- which means this 33% of the U.S. population is not a very effective barrier for transmission of COVID. Only vaccination can provide effective herd immunity against COVID -- and it will be awhile before the U.S. reaches the necessary levels of 70% or higher for COVID heard immunity. In the meantime we can only hope the infection rate slows down. At this point it is a race (in March to May) between the new variants and vaccinations.
COVID-19 and America’s dismal slump in life expectancy For the first time in decades, life expectancy in the United States has declined by a full year — and more, for African Americans and Latinos — due to the extraordinary death toll of the coronavirus. https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/2...-disease-control-racial-disparities-editorial Our country is fast approaching the grim milestone of 500,000 COVID-19 deaths, more evidence to all but the most fact-resistant of just how deadly the pandemic has been. The coronavirus is not “just like the flu,” as some on the right, eager to downplay the seriousness of it all, have claimed. Thursday brought yet more alarming evidence of that truth. A new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report found that COVID-19 has been deadly enough to drive down U.S. life expectancy by a full year, a decline experts say America hasn’t experienced in decades. That’s how serious this pandemic has been, generating a lethal impact approaching that of World War II, when life expectancy fell by 2.9 years. We cannot afford to dismiss that truth even as we see a light at the end of the tunnel with vaccine availability. Due to the extraordinary number of excess deaths from COVID-19, the average American now can expect to live 77.8 years, down from 78.8 in 2019, the CDC’s National Center on Health Statistic found. Its analysis is based on mortality data from the first six months of 2020, so the full impact of the pandemic’s death toll has yet to be seen. Life expectancy is a basic measure of population health, and researchers found a similar decline — of 1.13 years — in another report published in early February in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Both reports, as well, found racial disparities. African Americans and Latinos have suffered far higher rates than white Americans of death and severe illness from COVID-19, and the CDC report found that life expectancy for those groups declined by 2.7 years and 1.9 years respectively. Black men fared worst: Their life expectancy fell by 3 years. “I knew it was going to be large, but when I saw those numbers, I was like, ‘Oh my God,’” Elizabeth Arias, the lead author of the CDC report, told the New York Times regarding the racial disparity. The National Academy of Sciences report found similar numbers. For all the alarming news here, it’s worth keeping in mind that as the pandemic eases, life expectancy should rise once again. Light at the end of the tunnel, indeed.
Oh... Rational Ground -- the blog beloved by Tsing Tao. When they are not busy pushing "natural herd immunity" and "no lockdowns" -- their bloggers including Jennifer Cabrera and Kyle Lamb were busy pushing fake death data from Florida, the demon sperm doctor, hydroxychloroquine, and using bleach.
How Herd Immunity Works — And What Stands In Its Way https://www.npr.org/sections/health...erd-immunity-works-and-what-stands-in-its-way
NIH director: Mask politicalization may have cost 'tens of thousands' of lives in US https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...calization-may-have-cost-tens-of-thousands-of The director for the National Institutes of Health (NIH) said in a new interview that statements made by former President Trump and other Republicans who dismissed mask wearing during the coronavirus pandemic may have cost tens of thousands of lives. "The evidence was pretty compelling by last March or April that uniform wearing of masks would reduce transmission of this disease," Francis Collins told Axios. "And yet, with a variety of messages through a variety of sources, mask wearing became a statement about your political party or an invasion of your personal freedom." Collins also said that pleas from national public health officials like himself to commit to face coverings while in public "got categorized in all sorts of other ways that were not factual" by politicians, despite scientific proof showing that mass mask wearing helps slow the spread of the coronavirus. Collins called this spinning of scientific information for political gain "dangerous." "And I think you could make a case that tens of thousands of people died as a result," he said. The NIH director, who often appeared on television during the pandemic in its early stages to share updated government coronavirus research and advocate for public health measures based on that data, was pressed about political messaging surrounding his agency's efforts during an election year. In response, Collins said 2020 "was a pretty difficult year." "It's so disappointing that such behaviors could be chosen — intentionally by people who have access to real public health information and yet would decide not to put on the mask in order to make some other kind of statement," he said. "Perhaps with some sense that they're immune from the consequences." Trump downplayed the efficacy of masks during the pandemic's early months, before eventually supporting the push from members of the White House coronavirus task force. Some Republican members of Congress have questioned whether masks work against the virus. During a presidential debate in October, Trump mocked then-presidential candidate Joe Biden for "wearing the biggest mask you've ever seen." Biden on his first full day in office implemented a nationwide mask mandate for all citizens while riding trains, airplanes and or gathering in other public spaces.
generally someone yelling fire in a crowded theater leading to death would be slapped with criminal negligence
Can We Get to Herd Immunity by April? Many Experts Are Skeptical https://www.healthline.com/health-n...-immunity-by-april-many-experts-are-skeptical Many factors can influence how soon the United States will reach herd immunity for COVID-19, but many health experts expect the end of the pandemic is in sight. It’s theoretically possible the United States could reach herd immunity by the end of spring. But new SARS-CoV-2 variants and spotty vaccine availability make this unlikely, according to some experts. As COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths plummet across the United States, and COVID-19 vaccinations rise to 1.7 million a day, health experts are once again talking about herd immunity. Also known as community immunity, this is the point at which enough people are immune to a virus — through vaccination or natural immunity — that the virus no longer easily spreads through a population. The precise threshold for herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is unknown. But recent estimates range from 70 to 90 percent. That means a majority of people would need immunity to block the spread of the virus through a community. Herd immunity isn’t just an abstract calculation made by virologists and epidemiologists. It has implications for how soon public health restrictions such as physical distancing and mask mandates can be safely lifted. To put it another way: How soon will life return to “normal”? Some health experts see longer return to ‘normal’ Many health experts are optimistic that the end of the pandemic in the United States is in sight, although it’s not clear what the transition to “normal” will look like. Some experts are more optimistic than others. “I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life,” wrote Dr. Marty Makary, a surgeon and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, in a commentary in The Wall Street Journal. He points to the sharp drop in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks as a sign that parts of the country are nearing, or have reached, herd immunity. This decline in cases is “in large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing,” he wrote. He estimates that the number of people who have recovered from a coronavirus infection — and likely have some immunity to the virus — is 6.5 times the 28 million confirmed cases. That would mean that about 55 percent of Americans have natural immunity. If you combine this with the 150 million people that Makary estimates will be vaccinated by the end of March, that brings the country close to the herd immunity threshold. Not every health expert, though, agrees that the country will be open for business by April. White House COVID-19 adviser Dr. Anthony FauciTrusted Source said last week that the country won’t return to “normal” until after the summer, reports Newsweek. Many factors affecting herd immunity in flux Dr. Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, was even more critical of Makary’s Wall Street Journal commentary. “Just wondering if WSJ has any fact checkers,” he wrote on Twitter. Topol has several concerns about the commentary, including Makary’s estimate of how many people have natural immunity due to past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Other research suggests that the level of natural immunity in the United States may be lower than Makary’s calculation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that at the end of December, 83.1 million peopleTrusted Source had had an infection — about 25 percent of the population. More recently, Columbia University researchers estimated that by the end of January, 36 percent of people in the United States had had an infection — or 118 million people. Topol also doubts that the United States will hit 150 million vaccinations by March. President Joe Biden set a goal of 100 million people vaccinated within the first 100 days of his administration, which stretches through the end of April. He later upped the goal to 150 million. Based on an analysis of CDC vaccination data by NBC News, the country is on track to hit the more ambitious goal by April 29. If you take the Columbia University researchers’ estimate of the extent of natural immunity in the country, millions of people are still susceptible to this new coronavirus. The country has already paid a high price for this level of natural immunity. To date, more than 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the United States. If public health measures are relaxed too soon — before enough people can be vaccinated — the country could see another spike in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Variants could throw off projections Youyang Gu, a data scientist and creator of covid19-projections.com, is even less optimistic about the months to come. “My modeling suggests that it is increasingly unlikely that the US will reach the immunity levels required for theoretical herd immunity in 2021,” he wrote on Twitter. He said his projection is based on several new developments over the past month. One is the high number of people who won’t be vaccinated anytime soon — either the third of Americans who say they won’t get vaccinated, or children under age 16 who aren’t yet eligible for a vaccine. Gao said another development that could affect herd immunity is new SARS-CoV-2 variants that may lower the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. Data suggests that B.1.351, a variant first identified in South Africa, may reduce protective antibodies elicited by some vaccines. If the vaccines offer less protection, more people will need to be vaccinated in order for the country to reach herd immunity. Topol is also concerned about the impact of more transmissible variants. “[Makary] turns a blind eye to variants,” he wrote on Twitter, “particularly B.1.1.7, which has accounted for peak pandemic surges, hospitalization, and deaths in Israel, UK, Ireland and Portugal, and [is] now seeded throughout the US.” Other factors can also influence how long it will take the country to reach herd immunity, such as the duration of immunity — from the vaccine or after infection — and whether the vaccine prevents people from transmitting the virus to others. Scientists are still studying both of these questions. Christina Ramirez, PhD, a professor of biostatistics at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, said until we know the answer to these questions, we’ll have to keep some public health measures in place. Vaccination is safest route to herd immunity The New York Times and The Washington Post created interactive models that show how different factors can affect the path toward herd immunity — and the number of people who could die from COVID-19 under different scenarios. These models highlight what public health officials have long been saying about COVID-19: The safest path to herd immunity is through vaccination. Vaccines train the body to recognize and fight the coronavirus without causing COVID-19 or the long-term complications of infection so many “COVID long haulers” are experiencing. Although Gao’s model has contributed to the herd immunity discussions, he cautions against focusing too much on reaching this threshold. “Our goal should not be to reach ‘herd immunity,’ but to reduce COVID-19 deaths & hospitalizations so that life can return to normal,” he wrote on Twitter. Ramirez agrees. She points out that the COVID-19 vaccines approved so far have all been very effective in reducing severe COVID-19 and deaths. “Even with the variants, data shows that the new vaccines really work at reducing hospitalizations and deaths,” she said. “Variant or no variant, if you are at risk [for COVID-19], you should get the vaccine and not wait for herd immunity to protect you.”