Looking at the data, last lockdown peaked before lockdown and increased over. Most don't make any logical sense, you can't visit or visit your mates, but you can go to work or the pub with strangers lol Compare to Sweden, Shielding works and in the UK they stopped it and refused to restart, there killing people and getting away with it, to create more fear to push a vaccine 98%+ just don't need. Main area for spread, super markets, they stopped you going into less used shops but not super markets lol Social distancing inside with Aircon or heaters doesn't work, it's airborne. Total bullshit and madness,. If these things worked wouldn't be in the shit. Prove they work? Ohhh you can't, but as your being PC guess you haven't got to. Bits of clothe spread tightly over people faces lol and lol you lot really eat it all up, then wonder why the virus keeps spreading, muppets.
Using your first sentence, and assuming arguendo that it's correct, I'll rephrase my initial question to make it more clear what I'm getting at. And I'll add supporting questions and emphasis. How do you know that it wouldn't have been worse without the lockdown? That the "increase" wouldn't have been even greater without the lockdown? How can you go back in time, and do a what-if scenario?
When and where was it that we couldn't visit friends, but could go to the pub? No, that doesn't seem logical.
I don't think supermarket are main areas of spread. I believe main areas of spread involve areas where the most talking/yelling/singing are occurring. Super markets are more likely to following distancing and mask policies than Mom and Pop shops. Supermarkets are more likely to have invested in barriers. Also, Supermarkets are more likely to have what you're looking for, so you are more likely to make fewer stops.
Well without 2 earths, split in time it's impossible to say for 100% sure obviously. But you can compare Sweden to USA and Sweden 0.06% area, NYC 0.2% area, so therefore the Sweden is doing the things that actually work and NYC is doing bullshit. UK wise, if they'd of continued shielding then deaths would still be 10per day average, it's 400+, despite all the other measures and a 4week lockdown, few more months and everyone would of had, then safe for the shielders. Although high odds on 2nd infections, or new covid mutation, doesn't care if you've had the 1st before, 1 or the other. Mate next door, just tested positive, and I swear he had it back in April, all the symptoms, GF definately had it as gave it to me and I gave to others 2 tested positive, see what her test comes back as hopefully tomorrow. Shit happens, people die sadly, but that's life, time for people to accept and just live with this as it's not that bad, it's not the Spanish Flu by a long long shot.
You keep thinking in a binary manner. Distancing still helps, inside, with hvac. Maybe not as much if there were no hvac. But still helpful.
Your not UK, they did that, illogic still have, pub with strangers fine, pub with mates illegal, just nutty rules made up to make people feel safe. Airborne in pubs / shops so social distancing is useless, outside fine, inside ignore.
Proven Super Markets are, singing isn't allowed or dancing anywhere, so can't compare to those as they just aren't happening.
Again, binary. The measures aren't a cure. And you can't say that the shit wouldn't be worse without them.