"CoVID-19" is over.

Tsing Tao · Nov 17, 2020

gwb-trading said:
The financial damage done by government lockdowns as a public health response is minimal and only short term. Countries that had an effective public health response that kept their populations healthy endured the least financial harm.

Let's take a look at reality...

The 2008 Financial Crisis was a structural crisis, 2020 is not. Unlike 2008, large banks are not failing in 2020 -- the COVID crisis has a clear exit path with a vaccine and the financial fallout will primarily fall on small businesses rather than larger corporate entities which are the backbone of our global financial system and industry.

Comparatively the economic damage done by COVID lockdowns and fallout is minuscule when compared to the 2008 financial crisis. Some individuals act like the economic damage done by government lockdowns and restrictions in 2020 are huge and will take years to recover from -- this is not true. The economy will snap back rather quickly after a vaccine is fully deployed in 2021. In the meantime countries that stay the most healthy with the minimal spread of COVID will take the smallest economic hits.

Vaccine progress means the economic damage inflicted by coronavirus will be just a fraction of losses seen in the 2008 financial crisis
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-2008-comparison-blackrock-2020-11-1029807744

New analysis from the BlackRock Investment Institute shows that the economic damage inflicted by the pandemic will be just a fraction of the losses seen following the Great Financial Crisis

The firm says encouraging recent vaccine data from Moderna and Pfizer reinforces this view.

"Positive news on COVID vaccines gives us greater confidence that the economic restart can re-accelerate in 2021," said a team of BlackRock analysts in a Monday note.

Although a renewed surge in coronavirus infections and resulting lockdowns may disrupt the economy in the short-term, the vaccine gives investors and governments a "bridge to somewhere," said BlackRock.

The post-coronavirus economy continues to prove that it defies historical comparison.

On Monday, analysts from the BlackRock Investment Institute forecasted that the long-term damage from the pandemic will be nowhere near as devastating as the losses following the 2008 financial crisis. News of two highly effective vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer reinforce this forecast, said a team of analysts led by Jean Boivin.

"Positive news on COVID vaccines gives us greater confidence that the economic restart can re-accelerate in 2021 – and that the cumulative activity loss from the virus shock will ultimately be a fraction of that seen after the global financial crisis," BlackRock said.

In a chart comparing the US gross domestic product shortfall from the Great Financial Crisis to the estimated fallout from the ongoing pandemic, BlackRock demonstrated that cumulative losses will be just a fraction of what was seen after the 2008 debacle.

Although a renewed surge in coronavirus infections and resulting lockdowns may disrupt the economy in the short-term, vaccine progress indicates that there is a way out of the pandemic, added BlackRock.

"The game changer is that we now know we are building a bridge to somewhere, providing more clarity for governments and companies about getting to the post-COVID stage," said BlackRock. "That will make it easier to absorb any near-term disappointments and have greater confidence in the restart plan."

BlackRock is moderately pro-risk and has a neutral rating for US stocks. It also sports an overweight weighting for stocks in emerging markets and Asia (except Japan). BlackRock said China and a number of other Asian countries have done a better job of containing the coronavirus and are further on the path to an economic recovery. Also, broad emerging -arkets stocks are likely to benefit from stable trade policy under a Biden administration, said the analysts.
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So much wrong in this post it would take forever to go through. You can't compare 2008 to 2020, and the amount of backstopping the Fed did in 2020 to make sure banks (and Wall Street) didn't implode - which wasn't done in 2008 - makes it a total apples/oranges comparison.

Then there is the massive destruction to main street which isn't going to come back any time soon no matter what you pretend. And just wait until the bankruptcies begin in earnest. Stick with your narratives, you don't understand finance.

Turveyd · Nov 17, 2020

gwb-trading said:
The financial damage done by government lockdowns as a public health response is minimal and only short term. Countries that had an effective public health response that kept their populations healthy endured the least financial harm.

Let's take a look at reality...

The 2008 Financial Crisis was a structural crisis, 2020 is not. Unlike 2008, large banks are not failing in 2020 -- the COVID crisis has a clear exit path with a vaccine and the financial fallout will primarily fall on small businesses rather than larger corporate entities which are the backbone of our global financial system and industry.

Comparatively the economic damage done by COVID lockdowns and fallout is minuscule when compared to the 2008 financial crisis. Some individuals act like the economic damage done by government lockdowns and restrictions in 2020 are huge and will take years to recover from -- this is not true. The economy will snap back rather quickly after a vaccine is fully deployed in 2021. In the meantime countries that stay the most healthy with the minimal spread of COVID will take the smallest economic hits.

Vaccine progress means the economic damage inflicted by coronavirus will be just a fraction of losses seen in the 2008 financial crisis
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-2008-comparison-blackrock-2020-11-1029807744

New analysis from the BlackRock Investment Institute shows that the economic damage inflicted by the pandemic will be just a fraction of the losses seen following the Great Financial Crisis

The firm says encouraging recent vaccine data from Moderna and Pfizer reinforces this view.

"Positive news on COVID vaccines gives us greater confidence that the economic restart can re-accelerate in 2021," said a team of BlackRock analysts in a Monday note.

Although a renewed surge in coronavirus infections and resulting lockdowns may disrupt the economy in the short-term, the vaccine gives investors and governments a "bridge to somewhere," said BlackRock.

The post-coronavirus economy continues to prove that it defies historical comparison.

On Monday, analysts from the BlackRock Investment Institute forecasted that the long-term damage from the pandemic will be nowhere near as devastating as the losses following the 2008 financial crisis. News of two highly effective vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer reinforce this forecast, said a team of analysts led by Jean Boivin.

"Positive news on COVID vaccines gives us greater confidence that the economic restart can re-accelerate in 2021 – and that the cumulative activity loss from the virus shock will ultimately be a fraction of that seen after the global financial crisis," BlackRock said.

In a chart comparing the US gross domestic product shortfall from the Great Financial Crisis to the estimated fallout from the ongoing pandemic, BlackRock demonstrated that cumulative losses will be just a fraction of what was seen after the 2008 debacle.

Although a renewed surge in coronavirus infections and resulting lockdowns may disrupt the economy in the short-term, vaccine progress indicates that there is a way out of the pandemic, added BlackRock.

"The game changer is that we now know we are building a bridge to somewhere, providing more clarity for governments and companies about getting to the post-COVID stage," said BlackRock. "That will make it easier to absorb any near-term disappointments and have greater confidence in the restart plan."

BlackRock is moderately pro-risk and has a neutral rating for US stocks. It also sports an overweight weighting for stocks in emerging markets and Asia (except Japan). BlackRock said China and a number of other Asian countries have done a better job of containing the coronavirus and are further on the path to an economic recovery. Also, broad emerging -arkets stocks are likely to benefit from stable trade policy under a Biden administration, said the analysts.
More...

That's why Australia that did best from a deaths perspective are in there worst recession in decaded, UK Depression and the best place economically is Sweden barely touched obviously exported dropped a bit and there deaths are lower than most of the USA with no lockdowns, tell me again how great lockdowns are ??

Turveyd · Nov 17, 2020

Tsing Tao said:
So much wrong in this post it would take forever to go through. You can't compare 2008 to 2020, and the amount of backstopping the Fed did in 2020 to make sure banks (and Wall Street) didn't implode - which wasn't done in 2008 - makes it a total apples/oranges comparison.

Then there is the massive destruction to main street which isn't going to come back any time soon no matter what you pretend. And just wait until the bankruptcies begin in earnest. Stick with your narratives, you don't understand finance.
More...

Well Said, damn leftie everything will be fine, just ignore it and focus on the deaths and ignore anything that doesn't fit the narrative.

gwb-trading · Nov 17, 2020

Turveyd said:
That's why Australia that did best from a deaths perspective are in there worst recession in decaded, UK Depression and the best place economically is Sweden barely touched obviously exported dropped a bit and there deaths are lower than most of the USA with no lockdowns, tell me again how great lockdowns are ??
More...

Sweden had worse economic performance than its direct neighbors with its Q3 GDP down over 8.3% as well as killing a far greater percentage of its people. They did a real two-fer failure.

gwb-trading · Nov 17, 2020

Tsing Tao said:
So much wrong in this post it would take forever to go through. You can't compare 2008 to 2020, and the amount of backstopping the Fed did in 2020 to make sure banks (and Wall Street) didn't implode - which wasn't done in 2008 - makes it a total apples/oranges comparison.

Then there is the massive destruction to main street which isn't going to come back any time soon no matter what you pretend. And just wait until the bankruptcies begin in earnest. Stick with your narratives, you don't understand finance.
More...

Since the economic damage is not structural --- the mainstream economy will jump back quickly once a vaccine is widely deployed. Yes, there will be some churn, bankruptcies, and change of ownership for small businesses -- this is just part of the traditional economic re-structuring cycle. Those small business owners who planned wisely for the downside or found a way to hustle in a changed service environment will survive and thrive in the future.

Some people claimed that we would be seeing closed and boarded up businesses all over the place by now. This has not happened -- all the businesses in the local strip malls are open -- their biggest issue is finding staff.

The only boarded up and closed businesses I see are those looted and burned in ANTIFA riots.

Tsing Tao · Nov 17, 2020

gwb-trading said:
Since the economic damage is not structural --- the mainstream economy will jump back quickly once a vaccine is widely deployed. Yes, there will be some churn, bankruptcies, and change of ownership for small businesses -- this is just part of the traditional economic re-structuring cycle. Those small business owners who planned wisely for the downside or found a way to hustle in a changed service environment will survive and thrive in the future.

Some people claimed that we would be seeing closed and boarded up businesses all over the place by now. This has not happened -- all the businesses in the local strip malls are open -- their biggest issue is finding staff.

The only boarded up and closed businesses I see are those looted and burned in ANTIFA riots.
More...

I had to stop reading at "since the economic damage is not structural"...

Where do you come up with such ridiculous statements?

Not structural? Approximately 20% of companies in the country no longer make enough to make interest payments! Do you have any idea how catastrophic that is? And they added about $1B of additional debt during the pandemic.

Millionaire · Nov 17, 2020

Tsing Tao said:
And they added about $1B of additional debt during the pandemic.
More...

$1B sounds like a very small number tbh. $1T would be scary.

Tsing Tao · Nov 17, 2020

Millionaire said:
$1B sounds like a very small number tbh. $1T would be scary.
More...

Sorry, that was a typo. It IS $1 Trillion.

I'm working on valuation papers at work. Had B's on the mind.

Hotcakes · Nov 17, 2020

America quickly losing USD reserve status.

America added 8 Trillion dollars to the national debt last year

About 4 trillion of that was just pure QE.

Look at Bitcoin.

Turveyd · Nov 17, 2020

And all this to apease scared people via lockdowns and thereis zero evidence unless you literally can't leave your home that it does more than slow the spread down slightly.