Why would antibodies stay in the blood forever? Of COURSE they will disappear over time. Basic immunology teaches that when the body gets a bug, it produces antibodies to fight the bug. If it's a new bug, the body learns from it, learns how to make antibodies after you get sick, and after the infection is gone, when reinfected, it will be better able to fight off the bug. By making new antibodies for it. ??
This is really only half the story. If we can get the country with 80% of people with some form of immunity for a full year (80% vaccinated, half of that get boosters) we stand a good chance of reducing it to a common cold. The trouble now is that with so many people getting sick the virus is getting a lot of chances to evolve. We reduce those chances and the virus once again becomes manageable. It can be treated similar to flu where you go get your COVID booster once a year during your annual check up and be done with it. If you space that out enough you'll have a good chance of slowing it down or stopping it.
Describes well current/past few month events. Know that he has no love for the flu, but neither is afraid of it, yet can't speak about it to openly to avoid the damage being done to the project of VT. (as other great ones like Musk - they're trapped by the perception of the public eye. Ouch. So much monie, yet such chains on what can be said and what is prohibited) Timestamped, (the intro is nice tho) :
You haven't accounted for the "hospitals no longer reporting stats to CDC" fudge factor. Methinks it'll introduce an error of 25% on deaths, maybe 30% on cases. Looks like it started this weekend (announced las wednesday).
And let's not forget that the hardest hit countries in Europe were Italy and Spain. Which also happen to be the warmest countries in Europe.
Covid 20, 21, 22, 23...... Are coming. The person who named covid 19 must be very smart. Because he expects 20, 21 22, 23..... To come
Sure I did, that is why I am dead sure about the 200K by September. I agree it is about 25% higher than the reported (I think 40K unaccounted, but higher than average deaths this year) so we are already at 180K. That 20K will be easy in the next 6 weeks. The extra 100K in the last 4 months will come from the lack of sunshine and people being indoors with relatives (holidays) and shopping.
Depends on where you live. I was in DC 3 weeks ago and everywhere mask was required. Now here in rural PA, not so much. Believe me, yeah right, like I take your word. Now going back to the topic, I said we are at 1/3rd. The second 3rd will be the next 4 months ending with the elections. More confusion, more deaths, students in school and not, who knows. By the end of the year there will be some kind of vaccination (for at least military and health care workers) and hopefully the last 3rd is going to finish with the Biden presidency and finally with a common sense, universal approach, ending when 2021 summer starts. I am guessing/hoping for general population vaccination starting by next spring, thus by next summer, the pandemic should be mostly over.
you're on the old fudge factor standard. We were already undercounting: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/off...unt-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html you gotta update your fudge factor to last week's changes https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/world/coronavirus-update.html#link-47bd459f