Covestor Top 10 and Bottom 10 Clients

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by bwolinsky, Sep 11, 2011.

  1. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Just curious. Is your system in the theoretical world supposed be down 9% over the last four months? If it isn't what makes the real world account down more or less than the theoretical system?
     
    #21     Sep 20, 2011
  2. EPrado

    EPrado


    The problem with Sykes strategy of flipping penny stocks is one can only do it trading a few 100 shares at most, that is if you can locate the stocks to short. So while he maybe in the top 10, it's a strategy that can't be done with any kind of real money. So to be ranked in the top 10 of some site like Covestor really doesn't hold any weight.


    When you say people who trade highly leveraged instruments HAVE to use a pairs strategy, what instruments are you talking about? Certainly not futures right?
     
    #22     Sep 20, 2011
  3. I started using my new pairs model with the price physics system on the last trade.

    My old model took a 5% loss versus a 1.3% gain in the new one.

    Pretty big difference.

    The model is really only starting right now, but there was a trade I executed $1.25 above the last ask in SQQQ in the morning and this added an immediate 5.25% loss to the account. Other than that I see the new pairs model took a profit on the last trade as did my Covestor account so from here on out unless I get an exit signal from my price physics system it should be pretty much the same with slightly better risk reward due to integrating both methods together.
     
    #23     Sep 20, 2011
  4. Yes, Tim does have a replicability problem, and his subscribers have always seemed to lag behind his trades but if they are considered permissible there's really no basis in saying that his account's scalability is anymore limited than other model managers.

    I'm talking about double and triple leveraged instruments, specifically ETF's with my favorites being QID, QLD, TQQQ, and SQQQ. Over time these will all go to zero or drawdown 90% as they already have. The only way to get around this drag is to use a ratio between the two leveraged etf's to get volatility based overbought and oversold indicators similar to the ones you'd find in any pairs model. Once you have optimized your values and have at least 1 year of data it shouldn't be a problem to be mindful of where we really are in terms of fair value. You will lose money if you don't use pairs models when trading leveraged etf's, because you cannot infer mathematically whether we are at a high or low point in terms of the ratio. If you cannot detect your non-extremum based volatility thresholds then there isn't any way to detect large percentage swings down in either ETF leveraged pair.

    My stops are 7% (On 2x, which is 1.07^(3/2)-1=10.682% on its 3x counterpart) now versus the old 4.8 and 5.2% I used to use, but it's certainly been much more positive in the research model after I did that. Once you're overbought, you will always become oversold, and once you're oversold you will always become overbought...eventually. It doesn't mean every trade's a profit, just that unless you are calculating statistically how the change in the ratios smoothed average taken over a volatility threshold are positioned numerically then you cannot be sure whether it is the right time to buy those instruments or not. If you're not doing this, give it to luck, and do some research on pairs trading. If anything just seeing what the model sees will give you an edge by signalling highs and lows in the market.
     
    #24     Sep 20, 2011
  5. EPrado

    EPrado

    Tim's scalability is limited. Just because Covestor accepts small trades/accounts (permissible) doesn't mean those accounts are scalable. To say that a strategy like Sykes is as scalable as other "managers" is flawed. It's like saying a guy who trades SP futures strategy has the same scalabilty as Sykes. That couldn't be further from the truth.

    That's the problem with sites like Covestor. 100 share traders can be consider "top" traders. Is great if you want to make 5k a year trading.
     
    #25     Sep 20, 2011
  6. EPrado

    EPrado

    I know plenty of big traders who trade ETF's like the ones you talk about and trade them outright. Not paired/hedged.....and they make a ton of money. If you say your strategy works for ya...great. But to say others CAN"T make money trading these instruments without being paired up...well...that's a joke. You sound like marketsurfer with this "only my strategy works" crap.

    Problem with using "oversold" and "overbought" indicators is that one will get crushed during a big trend. Seems like that happened to you in Aug. You probably do ok in rangebound mkts, but set yourself up for huge losses when the fade trade you put on keeps going. And yes...."eventually" the market does come back. But all it takes is one huge move and you are out of business(See Vic Neiderhoffer).
     
    #26     Sep 20, 2011
  7. Certainly I don't say he's as scalable as a futures trader. There's ways of betting big on illiquid markets and while I do think he might frontrun his clients some, his TimAlerts page seems coincidentally to always feature his latest trade before he does it on Covestor.
     
    #27     Sep 20, 2011
  8. I'm not saying you have to be hedged, which is short one and long the other, with leveraged ETF's you can go long the undervalued. A point I've made so many times.

    If your indicators are non-extremum based meaning they have no absolute limit positive or negative periods like fighting trends should be limited to your stop loss.
     
    #28     Sep 20, 2011
  9. EPrado

    EPrado


    If he was able to really make any kind of money trading what he trades, he wouldn't be hawking off his strategy on a website. He has a cute strategy for the person who wants to make a few grand a year.
     
    #29     Sep 20, 2011
  10. EPrado

    EPrado


    I just believe there are many ways to skin a cat.......and those how claim that only their way is right...well.....are full of it.

    Your strategy sounds interesting.
     
    #30     Sep 20, 2011