Countertrend Rallies

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KGTrader4, Jun 19, 2022.

  1. KGTrader4


    I'm still around, haven't given up on the idea of learning to trade. Just haven't been dong much lately, except sit and think and read. Not trade. One of the things i've been thinking about lately.....

    We will, i guess have at least a couple of rip your face off rallies before this bear market is over. But they will be countertrend ralleis that wont last. And they will suck in a lot of people.
    I have a tough time sitting in 75% cash when this is happening. How do you guys avoid getting sucked in. What do you look for. (i realize everyone has a different "system" and some have no system)
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. Wrll if you think about investing or swing trading the way to wait for a trend reversal is to average in when you see the time coming. The secret sauce is when to start, how much to risk, when to accept a loss.
    MACD and KGTrader4 like this.
  3. If you want to try to capture part of counter trend rallies, you need to learn technical analysis... "Price TA". You can then know when there is a "buy set up" and when their is a technical sell. Price TAs are exactly the same in all markets... bull, bear, countertrend, commodities, currencies... all of them. The difference is in how often ones occur and how long they last. You have to play that part "by ear".
    S-Trader, MACD and KGTrader4 like this.
  4. ZBZB


    Summer solistice on the 21st June, 180 days from the high on July 5th.
  5. SunTrader


    Maybe. Or maybe not:-

    Market Prone to Late June Weakness

    JEFFHIRSCH Jun 17, 2022 at 1:24 PM

    Market Prone to Late June Weakness
    June is not a great month for the market in general. It’s even weaker in midterm years. But the week after June Triple Witching is horrendous. Down Triple Witching Weeks also tend to trigger more weakness the week after.

    But with S&P 500 down 10 of the last 11 weeks and down 11.3% to date, which would be the second worst June ever behind 1930, perhaps some of the usual end-of-Q2 carnage has been pulled forward.

    Any perceived improvement inflation, Russia/Ukraine war or supply chains would be welcomed by the market. With the bear on the loose caution and patience remain the best course of action. Happy Father’s Day to all the dads! Hit ‘em Straight!

  6. KGTrader4


    I have a serious illness. It’s a bitch and it’s called FOMO. I recognize it and I’m just trying to guard against it.
  7. the cure is to know if you don't fail you will be around long enough to catch a huge rally from start to end at some point
    KGTrader4 likes this.
  8. SunTrader


    That is not the cure. In addiction lingo that is an enabler.
  9. KGTrader4


    I’m working hard to not try and play any anticipated counter trend rallies. IM JUST NOT THAT GOOD, AND I KNOW IT.
  10. Don't be too hard on yourself. Countertrend "anything" is always a challenge.
    #10     Jun 19, 2022
    KGTrader4 likes this.