Could World Beat #1 Chess Player at Fast Game?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by shortie, Sep 9, 2010.

Who Will Win Carlsen vs World Chess Game?

  1. Carlsen

    5 vote(s)
  2. Draw

    3 vote(s)
  3. World

    1 vote(s)
  4. Everybody Loses

    0 vote(s)
  1. An interesting experiment which you can watch, participate and/or make predictions.

    Carlsen who is #1 ranked chess player will play against the consensus moves from the online audience (anybody can contribute their votes!).

    To help the World three top GMs (#15, #25 and #56) will suggest the moves for the World to vote on.

    Of course, the world will cheat using top computer programs.

    Carlsen 2826
    3 GM (average) 2712
    Top chess program Rybka (~3000)
    An average chess player (~1400)
    Rules of the game


    Magnus Carlsen will be based in the Penthouse of the Cooper Square Hotel in New York.

    Magnus will play on a physical chessboard and have no access to external support.

    The three GMs supporting the World Team will be located in a different location and will suggest their moves on a computer.

    A butler, present in Magnus’s room, plays the chosen moves of the World Team on Magnus’s physical chess board.
    * The only contact between Magnus and the three GMs will be through an arbiter, who will assist both sides in the running of the challenge and rule on any disputes.

    The game will be played LIVE with strict time controls, as follows:

    * Magnus has 1 minute thinking time per move.
    * When Magnus makes his move on his physical board, it stops his countdown clock.
    * A game operator inputs this move into a computer, which reveals it to the three GMs and the online audience, and triggers the GMs time clock.
    * The GMs now have 1 minute to determine their response.
    * When the GMs propose their counter move choices to the online viewers, their countdown clock stops.
    * The online viewing public now has 1½ minutes to place their votes.
    * During this time, a commentary team discusses the three proposals, while the computer counts the votes.
    * When the 1½ minutes are up, the most popular move is shown on the online feed.
  2. Rating_Diff Stronger_Player Weaker_Player
    0---- 0.50------------ 0.50
    25---- 0.53------------ 0.47
    50---- 0.57------------ 0.43
    100-- 0.64------------ 0.36
    150-- 0.70------------ 0.30
    200-- 0.76------------ 0.24
    250-- 0.81------------ 0.19
    300-- 0.85------------ 0.15
    350-- 0.89------------ 0.11
    400-- 0.92 ------------ 0.08
    450-- 0.94------------ 0.06
    500-- 0.96 ------------ 0.04
    735-- 0.99------------ 0.01
    >735-- 1.00------------ 0.00

    basically, the World is too dumb to play on its own. But because they (we) are given only 3 choices each of which is really good, the question is whether the World can consistently select inferior moves.

    the situation seems analogous to this hypothetical trading setup:

    if an average trader is given a superb trading system that leaves him some flexibility on the exact trades choices, will the trader underperform the same system+random_number_generator?
  3. Aquaman1


    I think it will be a draw. Goodluck!
  4. Excellent topic. Offhand I'd guess the world's response would be too uncoordinated. That is assuming that in the fast game there was still any time for strategy on the part of the top player. Now if they were playing mahjong or something of pure memory, or simply spotting immediate moves, then I'd guess the world would win because they will always have a better memory and immediate perception compared to an individual.
    Interesting since it is analogous to trading situations as you point out.
  5. LOL, World Chess Game will win

  6. Thanks for the heads up on the chess match.

    regarding trading, studies have shown most traders underperform random number generator.
  7. probably the best strategy for the world is to agree to vote for the moves that will match those of the top chess program. the world does not need to be a strong chess player here, it needs to be smart enough to realize they are the weakest link.

    is the world very smart?
  8. very true.

    so magnus, the 19 year old wonder kid will get 1 min and three GM 1 min + world 1.5 min.

    very cool, there is live video stream. 51 min to go, can't wait.
  9. 1min per move
  10. who is the overzealous Mod who has moved this to Chat?

    Confess and Repent, Quick! :D
    #10     Sep 10, 2010