Could unemployment really be 18%?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by traderdragon2, Feb 27, 2009.

  1. [​IMG]
  2. For sure. I have been a member on Mr. William's site for some time now.

    I got out of school almost a year ago... among myself and my good bros:

    I'm laid off
    2 marketing guys are laid off
    MBA: guy is working at Lowes
    another is delivering mattresses.
  3. No way. Ya need to look at how the data was compiled.

    As an example,
    Answer this: Did home prices rise or fall in Q4 of 2008?

    Now everyone would say they fell but according to OFHEO, which everyone hates since they only count the conforming side of the housing market which makes up the majority of that market, home prices in 28 out of the 50 states saw an increase in price. Excluding the 4 problem states, the states with declines experienced a modest 1% fall in price. Not bad.

    Now back to the original thread.
    What if we used the following to gauge the level of employment:

    <IMG SRC=>

    61% of the population is employed as compared to what, 63%, during the height of this last boom. Does this look so bad?
  4. Isnt he the guy thas has been screaming hyperinflation is coming a few trillion $ ago?
  5. Covertibility,
    Thanks for the chart. The civilian population employment ratio(CPER) is more telling to me than unemployment rate.

    61% is not too bad, especially compared to 56% in 1950. However, I guess now we have more families that both husbands and wives have to work, so the CPER is high. Even so, more families cannot make the ends meet. This is disturbing.
  6. You have to admit that some of those families that 'can't make end meet' is a little self-imposed due to debt and reaching beyond means.
  7. CPER sounds like a good metric, but only if the government isnt playing funny with it.

    Are they discounting people who have been looking for work over 6 months and other such nonsense???

  8. Yea, he has been predicting hyperinflation... In his last report, he said his time line was starting in 2010.

    I think if we see it, it will be several years.