I was fiddling around with my charts and put up a quarterly chart of the dow with my standard 20 and 90 period EMAs. The quarter ending in March showed a close below the 90 period EMA. The last time that happened was the quarter ending in September, 1974. The Dow closed that quarter at 607. The low was the next quarter at 570. Does anyone think we could retest this? Is there any econ data that might suggest that we could retest this????? God, that is a scary idea. The right will get it's revolution if 6440 doesn't hold.
I don't know about 90%, but never say never (think about 1929 to 1932 depression which was close at 80%). I also am not a fan of moving averages so I don't know how valid that claim is nevertheless. But if you want to look at some economic data (mostly negative) this is a good thread that has many charts and so forth: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=166453&highlight=comparing+great+depression One thing I will say is that the stock market is a leading indicator whereas economic ones are overly laggard.
The lowest low from the '29, high was down -90%. The Nikkei dropped -82%, 20 years after the high. As consumer sentiment is tied closely to our stock market, likely the Fed and administration would open the money-pump flood gates this time to prevent such a decline in the USA [$USD and inflation, be damned!]
20% market rally and 20% loss of US dollar to other main pairs = 0 gain. I saw this quote two weeks ago and the concept was great.
Its a given that the Dow will be worth 1 oz of gold before its time to get long stocks again. So yes that's about 90 percent from here
Any significant drop will be avoided by the printing press. And If it were not for the intervention within the market the markets would be 50%+++ lower than todays close.