Could profitable trading cease to exist?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rtr1129, May 23, 2014.

  1. lindq

    lindq

    There's a good reason why it's called "Climbing the wall of worry."

    Any profession that's subject to both market forces and regulatory issues is open to potential problems at any time.
     
    #11     May 23, 2014
  2. You have every right to have the concerns you do.

    Also consider switching to a better broker.

    Only imcomplete methods work on and off. Complete methods work all the time.

    One major principle in actual trading is the consideration of price change. Price change is required for making money.

    Your broker does not trade. He just affords you the trading opportunity for a consideration. He does not contribute to your perfomance to any extent.

    Someday you may think about the system of operation of the market. In a perfect fully efficient market, there will always be price change. Therefore, those with complete systems of how the market works will always enjoy taking profit segments in harmony with the market.

    One of the difficult things most potential traders face is not knowing what they do not know. There is a great deal that you do not know and that is okay for the present.

    Most people have a lot of ignorance to overcome. Your question comes from ignorance.
     
    #12     May 24, 2014
  3. That's also a good point, the international financial markets (London, Paris, Zurich, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Sydney, Hong-Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Brazil, Seoul, etc..) also offer plenty of trading opportunities.

    I used to swing trade the very liquid DAX and CAC40 (German and French indices) a few years ago.

    Those interested could read "Trading the International Futures Markets" for example, by Jake and Jacob Bernstein.
     
    #13     May 24, 2014
  4. Aileron

    Aileron

    ROFLOL ...

    You don't know who I am I take it ...

    Hehehe ... it is sorta cute in a way ...

    Wweally?

    ROFLOL Pwease tell me mohr!! You mean ... the price has to CHANGE?!?! What a concept!

    LOL

    Sigh, why not, I'll try to help out.

    This is so patently false ... it sounds like something an intern would say.

    Market goes sideways, your directional methods don't work, and you go delta neutral, or correlation strategies. Market goes directional, and delta neutral methods become much less effective. And unless you're very effective delta neutral trader (I know a few actually) ... you lose money.

    Just ask anyone trying to play the indices this year, as they did last year with the same directional methods, or played non-directional on the indices last year.
     
    #14     May 24, 2014
  5. rtr1129

    rtr1129

    Hello Jack, I certainly have limited experience, so forgive my ignorance, but how can this be? Say you are about to enter into a trade, long a stock. Right before you buy, a big player dumps a large number of shares, the stock price will tank. If the big player would have been in a car wreck today, maybe he doesn't dump his shares until a few days later. So, whether the stock goes up or down is, at least some of the time, subject to random events that no one other than god could predict. How can any system always work?
     
    #15     May 24, 2014
  6. Aileron

    Aileron

    Because it's not true.

    Markets will act differently, at different times. Thus, we can use either a "directional" method. This is "buy low / sell high" "sell high / buy low" or a non-directional method, or what we refer to as "delta neutral".

    So ... in 2014 in the Spoos (SPX) it would have been a HORRIBLE time to play a non-directional method higher and higher. A clear trend kept moving. And then KEPT moving. Unfortunately, I was trying some non-directional methods during that time, and I came out of 2014 with only something like 3% in my book overall. Some pieces did good (5.32% in valuation buy and holds) than others. Trading, I only did 2.305%, which is a bad year for me. Overall, I did about 3%. Good risk-adjustment (meaning, my returns weren't jumping all over the place). But it just wasn't a great year, though profitable. Using the wrong methods, at the wrong time.

    Now this year in the SPX? GREAT time to be playing non-directional strategies. Because there is no clear trend, and the market has been pretty much sideways. Thus we would say: "Great year to be delta neutral"

    A market's personality can change on a dime, and different methods will do better at different times, than others.
     
    #16     May 24, 2014
  7. zdreg

    zdreg

    stocks rarely tank because a big player sells.
     
    #17     May 24, 2014
  8. Aileron

    Aileron

    Yeah, there's that too. Lord if that isn't one of the biggest myths out there.

    Knight Capital for the win. LOL
     
    #18     May 24, 2014
  9. d08

    d08

    Of course I'm worried, you'd be "stupid" not to.
    Note that you said "profitable trading". Trading won't disappear completely but it might disappear for me and others in this thread.
     
    #19     May 24, 2014

  10. This going to sound crazy but for the first time Jack's post made perfect sense. I could understand each sentence. The only difference is I had 4 beers. (I don't drink a lot)

    I think I am on to something, gotta make a Costco run and then re-read some of JH's posts.
     
    #20     May 24, 2014