Could it be this easy?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by farmerjohn1324, Dec 31, 2022.

  1. How do you know that the owner does or doesn't succeed in reality?
     
    #11     Dec 31, 2022
  2. I wonder if it's possible to account for all those errors and get the real results.
     
    #12     Dec 31, 2022
  3. Darc

    Darc

    I could link you to his website, but don't want to advertise him.

    He's been keeping a running PnL this year, down almost a $1 mil this year. Yet sells Systems with up to 60% win rates from memory.
     
    #13     Dec 31, 2022
    farmerjohn1324 likes this.
  4. Businessman

    Businessman

    Not enough information to tell you if this was an outlier year for a system that is only slightly profitable over the long run.

    You need to back test it over the last 10 years, not just one year. How much did it average over the last 10 years. What was the biggest drawdown in the last 10 years.

    Also make sure the backtests account for fees/slippage and limit order fills correctly (if it uses limit orders).
     
    #14     Dec 31, 2022
    spy and farmerjohn1324 like this.
  5. Handle123

    Handle123

    Why is it people only discuss percentages and profits of a system that is not well tested? You have no stats based on tick data, have no idea of commissions, if limit orders used, how many fills actual take place, what is drawdowns, how did it do over last five years. Often commissions take first 100% of yearly costs on scalping/day trading. Too many traders doing a system stops working pretty quick.

    When I backtest, I require 20,000 sample size min, I see trading as a real business, I don't look at how much I can make but how low losing percentages are.

    Need to work on this much more IMHO.

    Happy New Year all
     
    #15     Dec 31, 2022
    rb7 likes this.
  6. Have you been able to find systems that work? Or have you came to the conclusion that algo trading is not the way to go.
     
    #16     Dec 31, 2022


  7. This is a very good, simple explanation written in plain English that even I can understand. Sekyio is a saint among all you heathens!!!
     
    #17     Jan 1, 2023
    Sekiyo likes this.
  8. oshjdf

    oshjdf

    I am not replying the post/thread, just bookmarking the good post for future reference.
     
    #18     Jan 1, 2023
    Sekiyo likes this.
  9. virtusa

    virtusa

    I marked the most important word from your statement.What you said is true, but to know if this one is indeed fake or not you have to manually analyze all the trades one by one.You have to understand what happens and check the evolution of the quote's on stoplosses, drawdowns and slippage.When I checked my strategy I did this manually on about 1,000 intraday trades.The results did not give what NT strategy tester gave, my manually checked trades did much better.I still have to discover the first reliable strategy testing software.
     
    #19     Jan 1, 2023
  10. Do you use your script profitably?
     
    #20     Jan 1, 2023