could democrats retake the house.

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Free Thinker, Sep 24, 2012.

  1. the current republican controlled house has been the worst session of congress ever. nothing has been accomplished. could the dems retake the house:

    Republicans at risk of losing the House

    September 20th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

    Conditions through August showed a 2% lead on the generic Congressional ballot for Democrats. As of September 20th, in the wake of the Democratic convention, the lead has widened to 4.0 +/- 2.0%. Although it has yet to be appreciated by pundits, this could well translate to a November loss of the House of Representatives by Republicans. Based on the generic Congressional ballot, the probability of a Democratic takeover is 74% with a median 16-seat majority. Whichever party is in control, the seat margin is headed for being narrower than the current Congress. Like any probability in the 20-80% range, this is a knife-edge situation. This picture may change over the coming six weeks as more information, especially district-level polls, becomes available.

    As seen in recent articles in Politico and U.S. News, few pundits think the Democrats will re-take the House. However, analysis of a leading indicator suggests to me that transfer of control is a distinct possibility.

    Predicting the House outcome is challenging. First, there is the basic problem that we have to estimate how far opinion will move between now and November. On top of that, there is uncertainty in knowing how the polling measurement – generic Congressional ballot preference – translates to a seat outcome.

    Another approach would be to use district-by-district polls and ratings. An estimate like that can be seen from our data partner, Their House outlook shows retained GOP control, and RealClearPolitics implies the same. However, many of those polls are weeks or months old. My estimate today suggests that in the coming weeks, we might look for district polls to move in the Democrats’ direction. This is also an opportunity for a detailed analytical approach, as taken elsewhere, to shine.

    In 2010, the national Congressional vote was a big 6.6% margin of popular vote win for the Republicans. That outcome was very close to the pre-election R+7% polling median (but 8 points less than the final Gallup poll of R+15%). So the generic Congressional preference poll, aggregated across pollsters, can give some sense of where the vote will go.

    In 2012, the picture looks very different from 2010. Congressional voter sentiment before Labor Day is often movable (see 2008 and 2004 history). But we are now entering the high season, so some sense of the outcome is starting to emerge.
  2. not possible. Worst case scenario would be status quo. Obama president, Republicans take the house. Deadlock for another 4 years as Republicans try to stem the Obamic tide.
  3. Robamney
  4. tend to agree its a longggg shot. if it happens i will have to concede there is a god and he is sending republicans a message.
  5. I doubt we take The House.I wish House races were state elections like the Presidency and Senate.