My view is short term bearish. Got stopped the day before yesterday. Will not open a position for now. Actually I am wondering if I should go short now then cover and reverse around 45. I think that is the trade, even though it goes against your seasonality frame. So based on that info I will sit on the sidelines and watch the show for now. Expect it to bottom at 45. Monthly RSI is way too weak. Good luck.
I've been wrong on this one. Monday, I will look carefully at getting out by the end of the day unless there is a huge bounce. I can get in later if I want to.
Reasonable analysis, optionpro. Based on the price bar behaviour exclusively, ( given the last three weeks or so) i reckon the odds of a gap up monday/rebound during the week are actually pretty good .
thanks acronym. I agree with you, which is the reason why I am watching the show from the sidelines..
Exited Long Dec Cotton at .4920 for 3 cent loss ($1500). I'll look to get back in at a later date with a larger position. Mistake made here was not coordinating seasonality with chart analysis.
At the moment, this looks like a good decision. Dec Cotton closed today at .4835. I am still watching closely for a reentry on a long. I need to see some strength and a bottoming pattern. I was fooled earlier on this one.( Actually, I was just too eager).
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix= This looks strong for the time being, it may see 52.
I don't like it retesting the low. I took a .50 loss on the big blowout day a few days back so I may just be overly pessimistic. The cash market isn't doing much, and seasonally, not much happens with CT for a few months. But that's just one opinion...
I've gone long March cotton today at .5355. I'm a bit late but it looks like it has at least some potential for an extended move.