I'm quite surprised at Gold's price action. I look at the COT data and I see the commercials are buying and the large & small speculators are selling. I'm curious what this means. Under what circumstances can commercials be so bullish and the price not go up? Or is it just a matter of time before the price moves up? I'm being patient, but this is taking a long time and I'm starting to wonder if it's possible for a commodity to go down even if the commercials are bullish.
Just because commercials are starting to hedge against price increases doesnt mean they necessarily expect a price explosion. I don't know that commercial users of gold are any better at predicting price moves than anyone else.
My understanding, limited knowledge of COT at this point, is you want to follow large spec not commercials. This guy has some good info for free on COT http://emini-watch.com/. The other guy I would recommend if bullishreview.com I just found, for now, that it just adds another thing to look at and isn't necessary for day trading.