This is expiration week and the difference between the March and June ES futures is less than 2 points. Usually on expiration week there is a 13-14 points of premium for the new front end which comes from the cost of carrying it for the next 3 months. Does this mean that the market's expectation is really low???
Fed Funds are at 3.00% (and heading lower) and the yield on the S&P 500 is 2.35%, so you figure it out.