Cosnumer is about to crash, my chart shows why !

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Digs, Aug 11, 2008.

  1. Digs


    The chart below is an analysis of USA Consumer GDP. The top panel is USA Consumer portion of GDP. Data is upto 2008 Q2.

    My signal line, is the misery index, 4th panel down, pink line. The only time when the misery index failed to signal consumer GDP falling to ZERO or less was in the 1970s recession. This is also at a time with the monthly stock of houses for sale stayed below 7 months in the 1970s, currently the monthly stock of housing is 11 months with the misery index above 10. So the housing situatiuon is much worse than the 1970s.

    Misery index : Unemployment rate, inflation, house price change (inverse).

    The 3rd panel down is the trend of non and durable goods with GDP both are at the ZERO line. Another confirmation that the consumer is at the cusp.

    The current sell off in oil wil eventually lower inflation a little, as it did in late 2007.

    But I expect the comsumer to sink to zero in 2008 q3 and q4. Confirming a USA recession. Add this to a rally in $USD with a slow down in exports, this cant help the bull case.