My thoughts (and positions) are short NDX, and NKD, long ZB. Furthermore, I'm dumping HG, and going long GC and SI. Maybe PL too. Probably a small stake. There's a moderate flight to safety currently going on. Which as I type it - is slapping me in the face with, I need to reverse my position on the YEN. I suspect it's going to get a bid. On the ES? I actually have a long position in the making. 1-2 weeks in duration. max. After that? See you later. Year 2 of bull thrusts tend to be chop-city, for pretty obvious reasons- you can't buy forever. And here we are. Oil is a whole other thing right now. I'm about to take my profits there and count myself lucky to do so here. That too is increasingly looking like chop city for a while. Cash is a position too.
No. Long treasury as a risk-off move (read-treasuries to outperform stocks. yield seeking assets being preferred. It's no coincidence XLP has caught a bid). Short NDX as a risk-off move. Long Gold and Silver as a risk-off move. Long Yen as a risk-off move. I'm sure you can see the theme. These are just summer trades though. This is all consolidating a years worth of historic gains. My positioning is to digest those gains. QQQ 280 is my target. Then enjoy the remainder of this secular bull market.
There's a mantra I have been trying to repeat in my head... Yields go up, price goes down. Yields go up, price goes down. Thanks Bart! That's why I figured if everyone starts seeking yields, causing ZB to drop in price, that can cause the NDX to drop too. See Feb/March of this year.
I am saying yields go down. I can't fathom where a belief that bonds can't go up if the nasdaq is going down could come from. And I'm not really interested in investigating where that belief comes from. If that's a belief of yours, then... ok. We should agree to disagree.
ooooh... I think I get where our discrepancy comes from. I don't buy into the narrative that growth stocks are tied to the interest rate. Yes, we should agree to disagree. I have my own studies.