As more and more time passes, it looks like the Wildchild's prediction was dead on. When you look at the timeline, it looks I was the first IN THE WORLD to nail it.
Great, lets use your logic. If we dont test anyone, no one had it so no one dies from it. Brilliant solution. You cant stop the Wildchild.
Obviously I can. I was the first in the world to nail the fatality rate. Are you even a trader? How much do you lose? Wildchild hits homers every day.
6% mortality... and order of magnitude higher. Probably 100% more possess antibodies and untested. You idiots need a 3rd grade do-over. At 3.22MM you're at a 3% mortality. It would require nearly 17MM with antibodies to COVID-19 to arrive at a 0.6% mortaility.
With 24% of people in NYC having antibodies or being infected, I don't think we can make any truly trustworthy projections until we have better data. (the fact we are still able to have this argument is telling us something about our leaders. And its not all about incompetence. I don't think NY/Cuomo is the only Governor who could get this done and share the data in very clear manner. Why the hell don't we have large random samples and results by now. We know antibody tests are not perfect but some but we could have some ranges by now. I want to be clear... I am not saying anyone is right or wrong right now. I am just saying is not impossible 17 million Americans have been infected. We do have some imperfect studies which suggest the numbers of infected could be much higher than early estimates leading to the possibility the death to infection ratio is below 1. (we will have to wait on good data to know.) https://www.biospace.com/article/mu...9-mortality-rate-may-be-lower-than-expected-/ For example, in Florida, the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine and Miami-Dade County announced completion of its second round of community testing for COVID-19 on April 24. It deployed random sampling, weighted across the county’s 32 municipal statistical areas. With 1,800 individuals completing serological tests and sharing information regarding their health, 6% have tested positive for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. That equates to 165,000 Miami-Dade County residents – significantly more than the 10,000 cases reported in testing site data. This indicates the actual number of infections is potentially 16.5 times higher than the numbers captured by testing sites and local hospitals. The county said it is 95% certain the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population (or between 123,000 and 221,000 residents). Importantly, more than half of the individuals testing positive had no symptoms in the 7 to 14 days before screening. You deserve a raise. Find and apply for higher paying jobs on BioSpace. Researchers at Stanford University tested 3,330 Santa Clara County, California residents on April 3 and 4 for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, using a lateral flow immunoassay. Adjustments were made for participants’ zip codes, sex, and race/ethnicity and well as for test performance characteristics. The pre-publication copy of the report noted the unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to the virus in Santa Clara County was 1.5%, and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81%. That range represents between 48,000 and 81,000 people who are infected. That’s 50- to 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases in the county. Similar preliminary data was released from researchers at the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. That test used a rapid antibody blood test and confirmed those results at the Stanford University lab. Some 863 people were tested. Researchers concluded that 2.5% to 4.2% of Los Angeles County’s 10.4 million residents had been infected. At the low end, that represents 260,000 people, yet only 13,000 cases were reported through the hospitals and testing centers. Earlier, a widely-reported study in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) found that 13.7% of the 211 asymptomatic, pregnant women who delivered at New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center between March 22 and April 2 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Another NEJM article quantified the infection rate in Iceland as of April 4 (36 days since the first infection was confirmed there). With 6% of the population screened, researchers reported that 13.3% (1,221 of 9,199) of those tested showed positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Those tests were based on nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal samples and analyzed using quantitative real-time polymerase-chain-reaction (qRT-PCR) assay methods. The tests were performed at either the National University Hospital of Iceland (LUH) or at deCODE Genetics. There are two possible inferences from all of these studies. One possibility is that academics from our leading institutions – or the tests they employed – are error-prone. Debates over methodology are ongoing, and questions swirl around error rates for tests that as yet are approved only under the FDA’s emergency use authorization. Alternatively, these results may indicate the deadly COVID-19 pandemic – with mortality rates generally under 1% – is no more deadly than the seasonal influenza. If that is true, the near-global stay-at-home mandates could have been an overreaction. Yet, at least initially, extreme caution was warranted. SARS-CoV-2 was a new virus and the world was unprepared. There were no diagnostics, no vaccines, and no therapeutics.
Jem, you make the argument with reason, which is better than 99% on this forum, but I have this thing nailed and my prediction stands. If there is a prediction market where you can make wagers, do it, because you cant lose.
https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-c...a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/ The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3% According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.